•Model backs Fluminense U22: probability 67% vs 74% on the line (odds 1.35)
•no edge over the line (-7 pp) — informational only
•Total: Over 154.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
•at line 154.5 (odds 1.85)
•Handicap F1 +6.5: score forecast 77:83 (diff -6) covers the line (odds 1.85).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Flamengo U22 - Fluminense U22 August 8, 2026
Basketball math model
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fluminense U22.
Line favourite Fonbet: Fluminense U22. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.95 / 2 1.35
Glicko: Flamengo U22 32.8% / Fluminense U22 67.2%
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 7.9%
2 books
131.6%
2 ✓ Pick68.4%
Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 12.95→ 2.95
Winner 21.35→ 1.35
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
%
Market consensus
Forecast by market
Match result
Flamengo U22
32%
2.95
Fluminense U22
68%
1.36
Total
Over 154.5
50%
1.85
Under 154.5
50%
1.85
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
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Match center
Start08.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Market1 31.4% @ 2.95 / 2 68.6% @ 1.35
Form1 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math modelFluminense U22 67%
💹 MarketFluminense U22 68%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form1/1
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market2
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
FormChampionat, Flashscore
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
TournamentChampionat, Flashscore
Lineup / squadChampionat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score82:98
Events0
Statistics0
Lineups0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
OptionSignalPrediction / actualRating
Glicko-2: base favouriteAudit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 67.2% fact: away
hit / ROI 36.0% / Brier 0.216 / LogLoss 0.398
Glicko-2: calibrated favouriteAudit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 56.9% fact: away
hit / ROI 36.0% / Brier 0.372 / LogLoss 0.564
Market and Glicko
Basketball math model.
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Flamengo U2231.6%32.8%
Fluminense U2268.4%67.2%market and model agree
1X2: 2 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Basketball math model
P1 / P232.8% / 67.2%
probabilities
Rating1,500 / 1,764
Flamengo U22 / Fluminense U22
RD350 / 292
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD800-2,200 / 1,180-2,348
strength interval
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Betting snapshot
1X2
21.35
Fonbet · no value · model 67.2%
12.95
Fonbet · no value · model 32.8%
Total
Over 154.51.85
Fonbet · line only
Under 154.51.85
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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