28.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Match prediction
Europe: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug
Turkey go head-to-head with Lithuania in basketball, in Europe: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug, on 28 August 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Turkey as the favourite at around 79%. Sportsbook prices (4 books) put that result at roughly 81%.
Recent form reads: Turkey have 2 won and 1 lost of their last 3; Lithuania have 2 won and 3 lost of 5. On the Glicko scale it is 1734 for Turkey against 1560 for Lithuania - a gap of 174 points.
Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is high. That is a 2-point gap to the market. On a hit-rate basis the steadier pick tilts to a covered market on Turkey - double chance looks calmer than a clean win. Key markers: an edge of 174 Glicko rating points, the model's 79% for Turkey. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.
Match winner — Turkey
How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Standing in the tournament
Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.
Head-to-head and form stats
Head-to-head and formHead-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.
Play-by-play
Play-by-play: gismo. For reference.
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We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 2.25 44.4% | |
| 2.10 47.6% | |
| 1.95 51.3% | |
| 2.50 40.0% | |
| 2.30 43.5% | |
| 2.15 46.5% | |
| 2.02 49.5% | |
| 2.30 43.5% | |
| 2.40 41.7% | |
| 2.20 45.5% | |
| 2.08 48.1% | |
| 1.92 52.1% | |
| 1.80 55.6% | |
| 1.78 56.2% | |
| 2.55 39.2% | |
| 1.45 69.0% | |
| 1.88 53.2% | |
| 1.90 52.6% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 153.5 | 1.45 69.0% |
| Over 154.5 | 1.55 64.5% |
| Over 155.5 | 1.75 57.1% |
| Over 156.5 | 1.95 51.3% |
| Over 157.5 | 1.35 74.1% |
| Over 158.5 | 1.45 69.0% |
| Over 159.5 | 1.55 64.5% |
| Over 160.5 | 1.70 58.8% |
| Over 161.5 | 1.75 57.1% |
| Over 162.5 | 1.65 60.6% |
| Over 163.5 | 1.87 53.5% |
| Over 164.5 | 2.65 37.7% |
| Over 165.5 | 3.00 33.3% |
| Over 166.5 | 2.45 40.8% |
| Over 167.5 | 2.75 36.4% |
| Over 168.5 | 2.50 40.0% |
| Over 169.5 | 2.80 35.7% |
| Over 170.5 | 1.95 51.3% |
| Outcome | Fonbet | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 99.0% | 1.16 86.2% | 1.16 86.2% | 1.20 83.3% | |
| 11.00 9.1% | 4.90 20.4% | 4.90 20.4% | 4.37 22.9% |
Turkey
Lithuania
Full head-to-head history: Turkey - Lithuania
The Turkey - Lithuania breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Turkey. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
Live odds for Turkey vs Lithuania from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.
August 28, 2026.
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