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IPBL
IPBL International
15.07.2026 23:10 MSK Match prediction
15.07.2026 23:10 MSK
Finished

IPBL

Chita - Chelyabinsk

International Basketball
Chita
Chita
107 : 93
Finished
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Chita — 67%

1 · Chita ✓ Прогноз66.7%
market83%
2 · Chelyabinsk33.3%
market17%

Model estimate: win Chita 66.7%, win Chelyabinsk 33.3%. Model favourite — Chita.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Chita - Chelyabinsk 15 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Chita.

Line favourite Fonbet: Chita. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.12 / 2 5.30
  • Glicko: Chita 66.7% / Chelyabinsk 33.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%
1 ✓ Прогноз 82.6%
2 17.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 1.48 ↓ 1.12
Победитель П2 2.45 ↑ 5.30

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 15.07.2026 23:10 MSK
Form 6 matches
H2H 2
Match center

Chita - Chelyabinsk

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 2 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 107:93
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Chita 82.6% 66.7% market and model agree
Chelyabinsk 17.5% 33.3%
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 66.7% / 33.3% probabilities
Rating 1,630 / 1,257 Chita / Chelyabinsk
RD 106 / 97 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,419-1,841 / 1,063-1,451 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.30 Fonbet · no value · model 33.3%
1 1.12 Fonbet · no value · model 66.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.25 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.93 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.57 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.77 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 192.5 1.63 Fonbet · line only
Over 193.5 1.72 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П1 -0.5 1.57 63.7%
П1 -1.5 1.52 65.8%
П1 -10.5 2.25 44.4%
П2 +0.5 1.93 51.8%
П2 +1.5 2.10 47.6%
П2 -0.5 2.25 44.4%
П2 -1.5 2.35 42.6%
П2 -10.5 1.57 63.7%
П2 -11.5 1.65 60.6%
П2 -13.5 1.87 53.5%
П2 -2.5 2.50 40.0%
П2 -3.5 2.13 47.0%
П2 -4.5 2.13 47.0%
П2 -5.5 1.83 54.6%
П2 -6.5 1.43 69.9%
П2 -7.5 1.47 68.0%
П2 -8.5 1.50 66.7%
П2 -9.5 1.50 66.7%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 192.5 1.63 61.4%
ТБ 193.5 1.72 58.1%
ТБ 194.5 1.60 62.5%
ТБ 195.5 1.63 61.4%
ТБ 196.5 1.72 58.1%
ТБ 197.5 1.60 62.5%
ТБ 198.5 1.68 59.5%
ТБ 199.5 1.43 69.9%
ТБ 200.5 1.55 64.5%
ТБ 201.5 1.46 68.5%
ТБ 202.5 1.72 58.1%
ТБ 203.5 1.95 51.3%
ТБ 204.5 2.03 49.3%
ТБ 205.5 2.30 43.5%
ТБ 206.5 2.65 37.7%
ТБ 207.5 2.15 46.5%
ТБ 208.5 2.40 41.7%
ТБ 209.5 2.00 50.0%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 1.12 89.3%
П2 5.30 18.9%
Match center
Chita
W W L W W
15.07 18:10 МСК IPBL
Chita 112:101 Ulan-Ude
13.07 21:10 МСК IPBL
Chita 106:99 Khabarovsk
13.07 18:10 МСК IPBL
Chita 101:103 Ulan-Ude
10.07 18:10 МСК IPBL
Chita 85:83 Ulan-Ude
09.07 23:10 МСК IPBL
Chita 102:89 ChelyabinskChelyabinsk
4 Wins
1 Losses
101.2 Scored
95.0 Conceded
80% Win percentage
Chelyabinsk
L W W L L
15.07 20:10 МСК IPBL
Chelyabinsk 88:92 Ulan-Ude
14.07 19:10 МСК IPBL
Chelyabinsk 96:89 Khabarovsk
13.07 20:10 МСК IPBL
Chelyabinsk 81:76 Ulan-Ude
10.07 20:10 МСК IPBL
Chelyabinsk 94:102 Ulan-Ude
09.07 23:10 МСК IPBL
Chelyabinsk 89:102 Chita
2 Wins
3 Losses
89.6 Scored
92.2 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyChita - Chelyabinsk

Chita
1 matches total
Chelyabinsk
Chita: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Chelyabinsk: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Chita 102:89 (09.07 23:10 МСК) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 191 goals (102:89, 09.07 23:10 МСК) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

09.07 23:10 МСК IPBL
Chita
102:89
Chelyabinsk