Lagomar take on Sayago on August 11, 2026 in the Liga de Assenso, International.
Recent form (W-D-L): Lagomar 4-0-1, Sayago 1-0-4. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 52% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1Lagomar — 52%
52%1
1 · Lagomar52.0%
2 · Sayago48.0%
Model estimate: win Lagomar 52.0%, win Sayago 48.0%. Model favourite — Lagomar.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
•Model backs Lagomar: probability 52% vs 48% on the line (odds 2.07)
•edge over the line +4 pp — value pick
•Total: Over 153.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
•at line 153.5 (odds 1.82)
•Handicap F1 +2.5: score forecast 81:79 (diff +2) covers the line (odds 1.85).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Lagomar - Sayago August 11, 2026
Basketball math model
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lagomar.
Line favourite Fonbet: Lagomar. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00
Glicko: Lagomar 52.0% / Sayago 48.0%
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 8.0%
4 books · best price +6.1%
151.2%
248.8%
Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 12.07→ 2.07
Winner 21.67→ 1.67
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
%
Market consensus
Forecast by market
Match result
Lagomar
50%
1.91
Sayago
50%
11.00
Total
Over 154.5
49%
1.87
Under 154.5
51%
1.90
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
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Match center
Start11.08.2026 23:15 UTC
Market1 91.6% @ 1.01 / 2 8.4% @ 11.00
Form6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math modelLagomar 52%
💹 MarketLagomar 51%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form5/5
recent games
H2H1
head-to-head matches
Market2
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketFormMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
TournamentChampionat, Flashscore
Lineup / squadChampionat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score59:55
Events0
Statistics0
Lineups0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
OptionSignalPrediction / actualRating
Glicko-2: base favouriteAudit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 52.0% fact: home
hit / ROI 107.0% / Brier 0.461 / LogLoss 0.654
Glicko-2: calibrated favouriteAudit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 50.8% fact: home
hit / ROI 107.0% / Brier 0.484 / LogLoss 0.677
Market and Glicko
Basketball math model.
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Lagomar44.7%52.0%Glicko contrarian
Sayago55.4%48.0%market favourite
1X2: 1 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Basketball math model
P1 / P252.0% / 48.0%
probabilities
Rating1,624 / 1,637
Lagomar / Sayago
RD153 / 153
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,318-1,930 / 1,332-1,942
strength interval
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Betting snapshot
1X2
21.86
market consensus · no value · model 48.0%
11.01
Fonbet · no value · model 52.0%
Handicap
2 -11.85
market consensus · line only
2 +11.84
market consensus · line only
1 -11.86
market consensus · line only
1 +11.85
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 137.51.65
Fonbet · line only
Over 138.51.68
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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