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AI verdict

AI pick Verdirrojo win probability ~52% best odds 11.00

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Verdirrojo. Full breakdown below.

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League de Assenso
League de Assenso International
26.08.2026 23:15 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
26.08.2026 23:15 UTC
Finished

League de Assenso

Sayago vs Verdirrojo — Basketball prediction

International Basketball
Sayago
Sayago
75 : 53
Finished
Verdirrojo
Verdirrojo

Sayago take on Verdirrojo on August 26, 2026 in the League de Assenso, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Sayago 2-0-3, Verdirrojo 3-0-2. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 48% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Verdirrojo — 52%

1 · Sayago48.0%
2 · Verdirrojo52.0%

Model estimate: win Sayago 48.0%, win Verdirrojo 52.0%. Model favourite — Verdirrojo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Sayago

Model confidence 92% ~91% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sayago - Verdirrojo August 26, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sayago.

Line favourite Fonbet: Sayago. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00
  • Glicko: Sayago 48.0% / Verdirrojo 52.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.2% 7 books · best price +511.1%
1 48.7%
2 51.4%

Odds source: consensus of 7 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.88 ↓ 1.67
Winner 2 1.82 ↑ 2.07

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Sayago
50%
1.93
Verdirrojo
50%
11.00
Total
Over 37.5
50%
1.84
Under 37.5
50%
1.82

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Match center
Start 26.08.2026 23:15 UTC
Market 1 91.6% @ 1.01 / 2 8.4% @ 11.00
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Verdirrojo 52%
💹 Market Verdirrojo 51%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Sayago - Verdirrojo

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 75:53
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 52.0% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.540 / LogLoss 0.733
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 50.8% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.516 / LogLoss 0.709
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sayago 48.7% 48.0%
Verdirrojo 51.4% 52.0% market and model agree
1X2: 7 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 48.0% / 52.0% probabilities
Rating 1,575 / 1,949 Sayago / Verdirrojo
RD 125 / 141 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,326-1,824 / 1,668-2,231 strength interval

Best value: P2 | odds 2.07 | edge 11.9% | ROI 24.4% | BetBoom

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.80 market consensus · no value · model 52.0%
1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 48.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.85 market consensus · line only
1 +1 1.87 market consensus · line only
1 0.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 127.5 1.53 Fonbet · line only
Over 128.5 1.67 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% —
1.88 53.2% 1.90 52.6% 1.88 53.2%
— — 2.25 44.4%
— — 2.00 50.0%
— — 1.78 56.2%
— — 1.60 62.5%
— — 1.75 57.1%
— — 1.95 51.3%
— — 1.45 69.0%
— — 1.75 57.1%
— — 1.77 56.5%
— — 1.43 69.9%
— — 2.17 46.1%
— — 1.45 69.0%
— — 1.60 62.5%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 127.5 — — 1.53 65.4%
Over 128.5 — — 1.67 59.9%
Over 129.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
Over 130.5 — — 1.95 51.3%
Over 131.5 — — 1.50 66.7%
Over 132.5 — — 1.92 52.1%
Over 133.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
Over 134.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Over 135.5 — — 2.20 45.5%
Over 136.5 — — 1.75 57.1%
Over 137.5 — — 1.95 51.3%
Over 138.5 — — 1.87 53.5%
Over 139.5 — — 2.45 40.8%
Over 140.5 — — 2.20 45.5%
Over 149.5 1.80 55.6% 1.81 55.3% —
Under 149.5 1.87 53.5% 1.89 52.9% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon Pinnacle
1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.01 99.0% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.93 51.9%
1.78 56.2% 1.79 55.9% 11.00 9.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.81 55.2%
Match center
Sayago
W L W L L
2026-08-22 Liga de Ascenso 2026, Championship Round
Sayago Tabare 68:71 Sayago
2026-08-18 Liga de Ascenso 2026, Championship Round
Sayago Olimpia 76:63 Sayago
2026-08-14 Liga de Ascenso 2026, Championship Round
Sayago Sayago 64:63 Urupan De Pando
2026-08-11 Liga de Ascenso 2026, Championship Round
Sayago Lagomar 78:68 Sayago
2026-08-08 Liga de Ascenso 2026, Championship Round
Sayago Sayago 73:77 Stockolmo
2 Wins
3 Losses
67.8 Scored
72.4 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Verdirrojo
L L W W W
2026-08-21 Liga de Ascenso 2026, Championship Round
Verdirrojo 76:77 Urupan De Pando Verdirrojo
2026-08-17 Liga de Ascenso 2026, Championship Round
Lagomar 73:57 Verdirrojo Verdirrojo
2026-08-14 Liga de Ascenso 2026, Championship Round
Verdirrojo 77:68 Stockolmo Verdirrojo
2026-08-10 Liga de Ascenso 2026, Championship Round
Trouville 69:72 Verdirrojo Verdirrojo
2026-08-07 Liga de Ascenso 2026, Championship Round
Verdirrojo 84:75 Olimpia Verdirrojo
3 Wins
2 Losses
73.2 Scored
72.4 Conceded
60% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sayago vs Verdirrojo?

By the PropickAI model, Sayago is favoured — about 52% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Sayago vs Verdirrojo?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Sayago. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Sayago vs Verdirrojo?

Live odds for Sayago vs Verdirrojo from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Sayago vs Verdirrojo start?

August 26, 2026.