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Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5
Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5
23.07.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
23.07.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut

Basketball
Al-Riyadi Beirut
Al-Riyadi Beirut
92 : 89
Finished
Sagesse Beirut
Sagesse Beirut
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🔒 «Formula lock»

1Al-Riyadi Beirut — 62%

The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Al-Riyadi Beirut (odds1.98) Score 81:79 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Al-Riyadi Beyrut: forma VVVVV (5-0)
  • • Sagesse Beirut: forma VPV (2-1)
  • • Model backs Al-Riyadi Beyrut: probability 50% vs 51% on the line (odds 1.98)
  • • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut July 23, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Al-Riyadi Beirut. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.53 / 2 2.60

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 3.8%
1 63.0%
2 37.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Al-Riyadi Beirut
1-4LWLLL
points for 86.9points against 86.2
Sagesse Beirut
4-1WLWWW
points for 103.0points against 91.9

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 23.07.2026 16:30 UTC
Match center

Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut

Form 5/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form home - 61.0% fact: home hit / ROI 53.0% / Brier 0.304 / LogLoss 0.494
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form home - 54.4% fact: home hit / ROI 53.0% / Brier 0.416 / LogLoss 0.609
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.49 market consensus · line only
1 1.48 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 178.5 1.84 market consensus · line only
Over 179.5 1.86 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
1.84 54.4% —
1.88 53.2% —
1.84 54.4% —
1.84 54.4% —
1.84 54.4% —
1.83 54.6% —
1.88 53.2% —
1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6%
1.79 55.9% 1.90 52.6%
1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4%
1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6%
1.83 54.6% —
1.83 54.6% —
1.78 56.2% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
Over 178.5 1.81 55.3% 1.90 52.6% 1.82 55.0%
Over 179.5 1.84 54.4% 1.88 53.2% 1.85 54.1%
Over 180.5 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
Over 183.5 — 1.87 53.5% —
Under 178.5 1.86 53.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.88 53.2%
Under 179.5 1.83 54.6% 1.82 55.0% —
Under 180.5 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% —
Under 183.5 — 1.83 54.6% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.49 67.1% 1.43 69.9% 1.53 65.4%
2.40 41.7% 2.60 38.5% 2.47 40.5%
Match center
Al-Riyadi Beirut
W W W W W
17.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Al-Riyadi Beirut 90:65 AntonineAntonine
14.07 15:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Al-Riyadi Beirut 113:81 AntonineAntonine
14.06 11:45 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Al-Riyadi Beirut 130:89 Beirut Club
11.06 11:45 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Al-Riyadi Beirut 107:83 Beirut Club
04.06 11:45 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Al-Riyadi Beirut 98:71 Beirut Club
5 Wins
0 Losses
107.6 Scored
77.8 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Sagesse Beirut
W L W
19.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Sagesse Beirut 95:83 Al MarkaziaAl Markazia
15.07 15:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Sagesse Beirut 74:75 Al MarkaziaAl Markazia
14.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Sagesse Beirut 100:93 Al MarkaziaAl Markazia
2 Wins
1 Losses
89.7 Scored
83.7 Conceded
67% Win percentage