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Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

27.07.2026 16:40 UTC Match prediction

27.07.2026 16:40 UTC

Finished

Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut

Basketball

Al-Riyadi Beirut

87 : 85

Finished

Sagesse Beirut

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Al-Riyadi Beirut — 62%

Pure model vs market (1 · Al-Riyadi Beirut): model 59% · market 62% Δ −3 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Al-Riyadi Beirut ✓ Pick61.5%

market62%

2 · Sagesse Beirut38.5%

market38%

Model estimate: win Al-Riyadi Beirut 61.5%, win Sagesse Beirut 38.5%. Model favourite — Al-Riyadi Beirut.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Al-Riyadi Beirut (odds1.45) Score 81:79 confidence 59% ✓ outcome correct

• Al-Riyadi Beyrut: forma VVVVV (5-0)
• Sagesse Beirut: forma PVPV (2)
• ochnye 1-0 (za 1)
• Model backs Al-Riyadi Beyrut: probability 59% vs 69% on the line (odds 1.45)
• no edge over the line (-10 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut July 27, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Al-Riyadi Beirut.

Line favourite market consensus: Al-Riyadi Beirut. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.53 / 2 2.47
Glicko: Al-Riyadi Beirut 61.5% / Sagesse Beirut 38.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 5.8%

1 ✓ Pick 61.8%

2 38.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 1.50 ↓ 1.12

Winner 2 2.42 ↑ 4.60

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Al-Riyadi Beirut

1-4LWLLL

points for 86.9points against 86.2

Sagesse Beirut

4-1WLWWW

points for 103.0points against 91.9

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center

Start 27.07.2026 16:40 UTC

Form 6 matches

H2H 2

Match center

Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 2 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 87:85

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 61.5% fact: home hit / ROI 53.0% / Brier 0.296 / LogLoss 0.485

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 54.6% fact: home hit / ROI 53.0% / Brier 0.412 / LogLoss 0.605

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Al-Riyadi Beirut 61.8% 61.5% market and model agree

Sagesse Beirut 38.3% 38.5%

1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 61.5% / 38.5% probabilities

Rating 2,121 / 1,858 Al-Riyadi Beirut / Sagesse Beirut

RD 214 / 315 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,694-2,549 / 1,229-2,488 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.44 market consensus · no value · model 38.5%

1 1.50 market consensus · no value · model 61.5%

Total

Over 183.5 1.84 market consensus · line only

Over 184.5 1.81 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity
	1.78 56.2%	—
	1.88 53.2%	—
	1.83 54.6%	—
	1.84 54.4%	—
	1.84 54.4%	—
	1.88 53.2%	—
	1.78 56.2%	1.85 54.1%
	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%
	1.83 54.6%	1.81 55.3%
	1.83 54.6%	1.86 53.8%
	—	1.81 55.3%
	1.79 55.9%	—
	1.88 53.2%	1.87 53.5%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Leon
Over 183.5	1.83 54.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%
Over 184.5	1.80 55.6%	—	1.82 55.0%
Over 185.5	1.84 54.4%	1.81 55.3%	1.85 54.1%
Over 186.5	—	1.90 52.6%	—
Under 183.5	1.83 54.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%
Under 184.5	1.86 53.8%	—	1.88 53.2%
Under 185.5	1.83 54.6%	1.89 52.9%	1.85 54.1%
Under 186.5	—	1.80 55.6%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Leon
	1.49 67.1%	1.48 67.6%	1.53 65.4%
	2.40 41.7%	2.45 40.8%	2.47 40.5%

Match center

Al-Riyadi Beirut

L W W W W

25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 96:101 Sagesse Beirut

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 92:89 Sagesse Beirut

17.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 90:65 Antonine

14.07 15:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 113:81 Antonine

14.06 11:45 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 130:89 Beirut Club

4 Wins

1 Losses

104.2 Scored

85.0 Conceded

80% Win percentage

Sagesse Beirut

W L W L W

25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 101:96 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 89:92 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

19.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 95:83 Al Markazia

15.07 15:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 74:75 Al Markazia

14.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 100:93 Al Markazia

3 Wins

2 Losses

91.8 Scored

87.8 Conceded

60% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAl-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut

Al-Riyadi Beirut

2 matches total

Sagesse Beirut

Al-Riyadi Beirut: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Sagesse Beirut: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Sagesse Beirut 96:101 (25.07 16:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 197 goals (96:101, 25.07 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beyrut

96:101

Sagesse Beirut

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beyrut

92:89

Sagesse Beirut