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Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

25.07.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction

25.07.2026 16:30 UTC

Finished

Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

Sagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut

Basketball

Sagesse Beirut

101 : 96

Finished

Al-Riyadi Beirut

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Al-Riyadi Beirut — 53%

Pure model vs market (2 · Al-Riyadi Beirut): model 56% · market 54% Δ +2 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Sagesse Beirut46.7%

2 · Al-Riyadi Beirut53.3%

Model estimate: win Sagesse Beirut 46.7%, win Al-Riyadi Beirut 53.3%. Model favourite — Al-Riyadi Beirut.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Sagesse Beirut (odds1.93) Score 81:79 confidence 52% ✓ outcome correct

• Sagesse Beirut: forma VPV (2-1)
• Al-Riyadi Beyrut: forma VVVVV (5-0)
• Model backs Sagesse Beirut: probability 52% vs 52% on the line (odds 1.93)
• no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut July 25, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Al-Riyadi Beirut.

Line favourite market consensus: Al-Riyadi Beirut. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (market consensus): 1 2.04 / 2 1.75
Glicko: Sagesse Beirut 46.7% / Al-Riyadi Beirut 53.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 6.2%

1 46.2%

2 53.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 2.07 ↓ 1.27

Winner 2 1.67 ↑ 3.30

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Sagesse Beirut

4-1WLWWW

points for 103.0points against 91.9

Al-Riyadi Beirut

1-4LWLLL

points for 86.9points against 86.2

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center

Start 25.07.2026 16:30 UTC

Form 6 matches

H2H 1

Match center

Sagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 4/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 101:96

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 53.3% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.568 / LogLoss 0.761

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 51.3% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.527 / LogLoss 0.720

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Sagesse Beirut 46.9% 46.7%

Al-Riyadi Beirut 53.1% 53.3% market and model agree

1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 46.7% / 53.3% probabilities

Rating 2,008 / 2,231 Sagesse Beirut / Al-Riyadi Beirut

RD 219 / 193 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,570-2,447 / 1,846-2,617 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.75 market consensus · no value · model 53.3%

1 1.98 market consensus · no value · model 46.7%

Total

Over 181.5 1.84 market consensus · line only

Over 182.5 1.81 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Leon
1.88 53.2%	1.85 54.1%	—
1.84 54.4%	1.80 55.6%	—
1.84 54.4%	1.83 54.6%	—
—	1.80 55.6%	—
—	1.84 54.4%	—
1.79 55.9%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%
1.83 54.6%	1.90 52.6%	1.85 54.1%
1.83 54.6%	1.87 53.5%	—
—	1.90 52.6%	—
—	1.86 53.8%	—

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Leon
Over 181.5	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.85 54.1%
Over 182.5	1.80 55.6%	—	1.82 55.0%
Over 183.5	1.84 54.4%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%
Over 184.5	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.85 54.1%
Under 181.5	1.83 54.6%	1.87 53.5%	—
Under 182.5	1.86 53.8%	—	—
Under 183.5	1.83 54.6%	1.85 54.1%	—
Under 184.5	1.83 54.6%	1.87 53.5%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Leon
	1.93 51.8%	1.97 50.8%	2.04 49.0%
	1.75 57.1%	1.74 57.5%	1.75 57.1%

Match center

Sagesse Beirut

L W L W

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 89:92 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

19.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 95:83 Al Markazia

15.07 15:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 74:75 Al Markazia

14.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 100:93 Al Markazia

2 Wins

2 Losses

89.5 Scored

85.8 Conceded

50% Win percentage

Al-Riyadi Beirut

W W W W W

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 92:89 Sagesse Beirut

17.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 90:65 Antonine

14.07 15:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 113:81 Antonine

14.06 11:45 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 130:89 Beirut Club

11.06 11:45 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 107:83 Beirut Club

5 Wins

0 Losses

106.4 Scored

81.4 Conceded

100% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historySagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut

Sagesse Beirut

1 matches total

Al-Riyadi Beirut

Sagesse Beirut: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Al-Riyadi Beirut: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Al-Riyadi Beyrut 89:92 (23.07 16:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 181 goals (89:92, 23.07 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut

89:92

Al-Riyadi Beyrut