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AI verdict

AI pick Panteras de Aguascalientes win probability ~54% best odds 1.70

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Panteras de Aguascalientes. Full breakdown below.

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Mexico. LNBP
Mexico. LNBP
17.08.2026 00:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
17.08.2026 00:00 UTC
Finished

Mexico. LNBP

Abejas de Leon - Panteras de Aguascalientes

Basketball
Abejas de Leon
Abejas de Leon
87 : 102
Finished
Panteras de Aguascalientes
Panteras de Aguascalientes

Abejas de Leon go head-to-head with Panteras de Aguascalientes on August 17, 2026 in the Mexico. LNBP.

Recent form (W-D-L): Abejas de Leon 3-0-2, Panteras de Aguascalientes 2-0-3. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 46% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Panteras de Aguascalientes — 54%

1 · Abejas de Leon46.0%
2 · Panteras de Aguascalientes54.0%

Model estimate: win Abejas de Leon 46.0%, win Panteras de Aguascalientes 54.0%. Model favourite — Panteras de Aguascalientes.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Abejas de Leon (odds1.87) Score 81:79 confidence 58% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Abekhas: forma PPPPV (1-4)
  • • Panteras: forma VVVPP (3-2)
  • • Model backs Abekhas: probability 58% vs 53% on the line (odds 1.87)
  • • edge over the line +4 pp — value pick.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Abejas de Leon - Panteras de Aguascalientes August 17, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Panteras de Aguascalientes.

Line favourite market consensus: Panteras de Aguascalientes. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 2.10 / 2 1.70
  • Glicko: Abejas de Leon 46.0% / Panteras de Aguascalientes 54.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1% 4 books · best price +1.2%
1 44.9%
2 55.1%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Abejas de Leon
45%
2.10
Panteras de Aguascalientes
55%
1.70
Handicap
Abejas de Leon (2.5)
50%
1.84
Panteras de Aguascalientes (2.5)
50%
1.85
Total
Over 173.5
50%
1.89
Under 173.5
50%
1.89

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Abejas de Leon
#514 ptsGP 104-6
Panteras de Aguascalientes
#314 ptsGP 95-4

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

29Wins14
91.7Points on average86.0

Head-to-head matches: 43 · average total 177.7 (points)

Team form

Abejas de Leon
4-6WWLWLLLLWL
points for 86.7points against 88.3
Panteras de Aguascalientes
6-4WLWLLWWWLW
points for 87.5points against 82.8

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 17.08.2026 00:00 UTC
Market 1 44.7% @ 2.10 / 2 55.3% @ 1.70
Form 6 matches
H2H 1
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Panteras de Aguascalientes 54%
💹 Market Panteras de Aguascalientes 55%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Abejas de Leon - Panteras de Aguascalientes

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 87:102
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 54.0% fact: away hit / ROI 70.0% / Brier 0.424 / LogLoss 0.617
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 51.6% fact: away hit / ROI 70.0% / Brier 0.469 / LogLoss 0.662
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Abejas de Leon 44.9% 46.0%
Panteras de Aguascalientes 55.1% 54.0% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 46.0% / 54.0% probabilities
Rating 1,627 / 1,329 Abejas de Leon / Panteras de Aguascalientes
RD 170 / 175 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,287-1,967 / 979-1,678 strength interval

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 54.0%
1 2.06 market consensus · no value · model 46.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.81 market consensus · line only
2 0.5 1.82 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.88 market consensus · line only
1 0.5 1.85 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 168.5 1.68 market consensus · line only
Over 169.5 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM
1.78 56.2% 1.78 56.2% —
1.84 54.4% 1.84 54.4% —
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% —
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% —
— — 1.81 55.3%
1.92 52.1% 1.92 52.1% 1.90 52.6%
1.86 53.8% 1.86 53.8% 1.80 55.6%
— — 1.80 55.6%
— — 1.82 55.0%
— — 1.82 55.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM
Over 168.5 — — 1.68 59.5%
Over 169.5 1.88 53.2% — 1.62 61.7%
Over 170.5 — — 1.68 59.5%
Over 171.5 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.76 56.8%
Over 172.5 1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5% —
Over 173.5 1.81 55.3% 1.81 55.3% —
Under 169.5 1.82 55.0% — —
Under 171.5 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% —
Under 172.5 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% —
Under 173.5 1.89 52.9% 1.89 52.9% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet
2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.02 49.5% 2.02 49.5%
1.66 60.2% 1.66 60.2% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-0-6
2026-08-17 · Abekhas de Leon 87:102 Panteras Aguaskalentes
2026-08-16 · Abekhas de Leon 92:83 Panteras Aguaskalentes
2025-07-12 · Abekhas de Leon 97:114 Panteras Aguaskalentes
2025-07-11 · Abekhas de Leon 103:98 Panteras Aguaskalentes
2024-09-14 · Abekhas de Leon 86:101 Panteras Aguaskalentes
Source: ruscore
Abejas de Leon
W L L W W
2026-08-16 LNBP 2026
Abejas de Leon Abejas de Leon 92:83 Panteras de Aguascalientes
2026-08-07 LNBP 2026
Abejas de Leon Abejas de Leon 83:95 Astros Jalisco
2026-08-06 LNBP 2026
Abejas de Leon Abejas de Leon 90:103 Astros Jalisco
2026-07-25 LNBP 2026
Abejas de Leon Abejas de Leon 101:89 Correcaminos
2026-07-24 LNBP 2026
Abejas de Leon Abejas de Leon 95:88 Correcaminos
3 Wins
2 Losses
92.2 Scored
91.6 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Panteras de Aguascalientes
L W L L W
2026-08-16 LNBP 2026
Abejas de Leon 92:83 Panteras de Aguascalientes Panteras de Aguascalientes
2026-08-07 LNBP 2026
Gambusinos De Fresnillo 69:88 Panteras de Aguascalientes Panteras de Aguascalientes
2026-08-06 LNBP 2026
Gambusinos De Fresnillo 84:74 Panteras de Aguascalientes Panteras de Aguascalientes
2026-07-25 LNBP 2026
Diablos Rojos Del Mexico 92:88 Panteras de Aguascalientes Panteras de Aguascalientes
2026-07-24 LNBP 2026
Diablos Rojos Del Mexico 80:91 Panteras de Aguascalientes Panteras de Aguascalientes
2 Wins
3 Losses
84.8 Scored
83.4 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Abejas de Leon - Panteras de Aguascalientes

Abejas de Leon
3 matches total
Panteras de Aguascalientes
Abejas de Leon: 2 (66.7%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Panteras de Aguascalientes: 1 (33.3%)
Biggest win Panteras de Aguascalientes 97:114 (2025-07-12) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 211 goals (97:114, 2025-07-12) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

2026-08-16 LNBP 2026
Abejas de Leon 92:83 Panteras de Aguascalientes
2025-07-12 LNBP 2026
Abejas de Leon 97:114 Panteras de Aguascalientes
2025-07-11 LNBP 2026
Abejas de Leon 103:98 Panteras de Aguascalientes

Recent form

Abejas de Leon LWLLLL
Panteras de Aguascalientes WLWWWL

Standings

# PWL+/-Pts
1Dorados de Chihuahua10733717
2Fuerza Regia1073117
3Panteras de Aguascalientes10644716
4Correcaminos12210-8114
5Abejas de Leon1046-1614
6Santos de San Luis1046-9014
7Freseros de Irapuato1037-5713

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

Team form & streaks

Abejas de Leon LWLLLL
Panteras de Aguascalientes WLWWWL

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

Standings around this match East

# PWL+/-Pts
3Panteras de Aguascalientes10644716
5Abejas de Leon1046-1614

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

Match facts

Stadium: Domo de la Feria, Leon

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

More predictions

Dorados – Abejas de Leon 20.08 Dorados – Abejas de Leon 21.08 Panteras de Aguascalientes – Santos 21.08 Panteras de Aguascalientes – Santos 22.08 Freseros – El Calor de Cancun 20.08 Fuerza Regia – Gambusinos 20.08

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Abejas de Leon vs Panteras de Aguascalientes?

By the PropickAI model, Panteras de Aguascalientes is favoured — about 54% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Abejas de Leon vs Panteras de Aguascalientes?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Panteras de Aguascalientes. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Abejas de Leon vs Panteras de Aguascalientes start?

August 17, 2026.