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AI verdict

AI pick Diablos Rojos win probability ~56% confidence Medium best odds 1.68

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Diablos Rojos. Full breakdown below.

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Mexico. LNBP
Mexico. LNBP
16.08.2026 02:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
16.08.2026 02:00 UTC
Finished

Mexico. LNBP

Gambusinos - Diablos Rojos

Basketball
Gambusinos
Gambusinos
83 : 80
Finished
Diablos Rojos
Diablos Rojos

Gambusinos meet Diablos Rojos on August 16, 2026 in the Mexico. LNBP.

Recent form (W-D-L): Gambusinos 2-0-3, Diablos Rojos 1-0-4. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 44% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Diablos Rojos — 56%

1 · Gambusinos44.2%
2 · Diablos Rojos ✓ Pick55.8%

Model estimate: win Gambusinos 44.2%, win Diablos Rojos 55.8%. Model favourite — Diablos Rojos.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Diablos Rojos (odds1.52) Score 79:81 confidence 56% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Gambusinos: forma PPPVP (1-4)
  • • Diablos Rojos: forma PPPVP (1-4)
  • • Model backs Diablos Rojos: probability 56% vs 66% on the line (odds 1.52)
  • • no edge over the line (-10 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Gambusinos - Diablos Rojos August 16, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Diablos Rojos.

Line favourite market consensus: Diablos Rojos. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 2.10 / 2 1.68
  • Glicko: Gambusinos 44.2% / Diablos Rojos 55.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.9% 5 books · best price +1.2%
1 44.2%
2 ✓ Pick 55.9%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Gambusinos
44%
2.10
Diablos Rojos
56%
1.68
Handicap
Gambusinos (-1.5)
51%
1.85
Diablos Rojos (-1.5)
49%
1.90
Total
Over 161.5
50%
1.87
Under 161.5
50%
1.87

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Gambusinos
#613 ptsGP 103-7
Diablos Rojos
#512 ptsGP 93-6

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

2Wins1
80.3Points on average79.7

Head-to-head matches: 3 · average total 160.0 (points)

Team form

Gambusinos
3-7WLLLWLLLWL
points for 74.5points against 79.2
Diablos Rojos
3-7LLWLWWLLLL
points for 82.1points against 82.9

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Play-by-play

Match timeline

GambusinosDiablos Rojos
  • 1' Goal Gambusinos
  • 2' Goal Gambusinos
  • 2' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 2' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 2' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 3' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 3' Goal Gambusinos
  • 4' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 6' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 6' Goal Gambusinos
  • 7' Goal Gambusinos
  • 7' Goal Gambusinos
  • 7' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 8' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 8' Goal Gambusinos
  • 8' Goal Gambusinos
  • 9' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 9' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 9' Goal Gambusinos
  • 9' Goal Gambusinos
  • 9' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 10' Goal Gambusinos
  • 10' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 10' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 10' Goal Gambusinos
  • 11' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 11' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 12' Goal Gambusinos
  • 12' Goal Gambusinos
  • 13' Goal Gambusinos
  • 13' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 14' Goal Gambusinos
  • 14' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 15' Goal Gambusinos
  • 15' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 16' Goal Gambusinos
  • 16' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 16' Goal Gambusinos
  • 17' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 18' Goal Gambusinos
  • 18' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 18' Goal Gambusinos
  • 18' Goal Gambusinos
  • 19' Goal Gambusinos
  • 19' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 20' Goal Gambusinos
  • 20' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 21' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 21' Goal Gambusinos
  • 21' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 22' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 23' Goal Gambusinos
  • 24' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 25' Goal Gambusinos
  • 26' Goal Gambusinos
  • 27' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 28' Goal Gambusinos
  • 28' Goal Gambusinos
  • 29' Goal Gambusinos
  • 29' Goal Gambusinos
  • 30' Goal Gambusinos
  • 30' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 30' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 30' Goal Gambusinos
  • 30' Goal Gambusinos
  • 31' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 32' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 32' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 32' Goal Gambusinos
  • 33' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 34' Goal Gambusinos
  • 34' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 34' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 34' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 35' Goal Gambusinos
  • 36' Goal Gambusinos
  • 36' Goal Gambusinos
  • 36' Goal Gambusinos
  • 36' Goal Diablos Rojos
  • 36' Goal Diablos Rojos

Play-by-play: gismo. For reference.

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Match center
Start 16.08.2026 02:00 UTC
Market 1 44.4% @ 2.10 / 2 55.6% @ 1.68
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Diablos Rojos 56%
💹 Market Diablos Rojos 56%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Gambusinos - Diablos Rojos

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 4/2 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 83:80
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 55.8% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.624 / LogLoss 0.818
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 52.3% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.548 / LogLoss 0.741
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Gambusinos 44.2% 44.2%
Diablos Rojos 55.9% 55.8% market and model agree
1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 44.2% / 55.8% probabilities
Rating 831 / 1,065 Gambusinos / Diablos Rojos
RD 221 / 197 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 390-1,272 / 670-1,459 strength interval

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.66 market consensus · no value · model 55.8%
1 2.09 market consensus · no value · model 44.2%
Total
Over 160.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
Over 161.5 1.84 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6%
1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6%
1.81 55.3% —
1.81 55.3% —
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5%
1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6%
1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
Over 161.5 1.87 53.5% 1.86 53.8%
Over 162.5 1.82 55.0% 1.82 55.0%
Over 163.5 1.88 53.2% 1.88 53.2%
Over 165.5 1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5%
Over 167.5 1.88 53.2% 1.88 53.2%
Under 161.5 1.85 54.1% 1.84 54.4%
Under 162.5 1.88 53.2% 1.88 53.2%
Under 163.5 1.82 55.0% 1.82 55.0%
Under 165.5 1.83 54.6% —
Under 167.5 1.82 55.0% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.06 48.5%
1.66 60.2% 1.66 60.2% 1.66 60.2% 1.66 60.2% 1.68 59.5%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 3-0-2
2026-08-16 · Gambusinos 83:80 Dablos Rokhos
2025-07-30 · Gambusinos 89:79 Dablos Rokhos
2025-07-29 · Gambusinos 69:80 Dablos Rokhos
2024-09-15 · Gambusinos 79:76 Dablos Rokhos
2024-09-14 · Gambusinos 84:93 Dablos Rokhos
Source: ruscore
Gambusinos
L W L W
2026-08-07 LNBP 2026
Gambusinos Gambusinos De Fresnillo 69:88 Panteras de Aguascalientes
2026-08-06 LNBP 2026
Gambusinos Gambusinos De Fresnillo 84:74 Panteras de Aguascalientes
2026-07-26 LNBP 2026
Gambusinos Gambusinos De Fresnillo 80:88 Astros Jalisco
2026-07-25 LNBP 2026
Gambusinos Gambusinos De Fresnillo 86:71 Astros Jalisco
2 Wins
2 Losses
79.8 Scored
80.3 Conceded
50% Win percentage
Diablos Rojos
W L
2026-08-02 LNBP 2026
Dorados de Chihuahua 67:87 Diablos Rojos Del Mexico Diablos Rojos
2026-08-01 LNBP 2026
Dorados de Chihuahua 86:70 Diablos Rojos Del Mexico Diablos Rojos
1 Wins
1 Losses
78.5 Scored
76.5 Conceded
50% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Gambusinos - Diablos Rojos

Gambusinos
3 matches total
Diablos Rojos
Gambusinos: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Diablos Rojos: 3 (100%)
Biggest win Diablos Rojos Del Mexico 69:80 (2025-07-29) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 168 goals (89:79, 2025-07-30) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

2025-07-30 LNBP 2026
Gambusinos De Fresnillo 89:79 Diablos Rojos Del Mexico
2025-07-29 LNBP 2026
Gambusinos De Fresnillo 69:80 Diablos Rojos Del Mexico
2024-09-15 LNBP 2026
Gambusinos De Fresnillo 79:76 Diablos Rojos Del Mexico

Detailed match statistics Gambusinos – Diablos Rojos

52Ball possession48
19/8/27Free throws scored16/4/20
20/12/32Two pointers scored20/11/31
8/16/24Three pointers scored8/17/25
7Max Points in a Row7
3Timeouts7
26Rebounds25
47Successful Attempts44
20Fouls27
5Fouls current period7
7Biggest lead3
1452Time spent in lead334
8Lead changes7

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

Recent form

Gambusinos WLLLWL
Diablos Rojos LLLLWW

Standings

# PWL+/-Pts
1Astros Jalisco11838619
2Soles de Mexicali9726016
3Mineros de Zacatecas9635815
4Gambusinos De Fresnillo936-4212
5Diablos Rojos Del Mexico936312
6El Calor de Cancun936-3912

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

Team form & streaks

Gambusinos WLLLWL
Diablos Rojos LLLLWW

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

Match facts

Stadium: Gimnasio Solidaridad

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

More predictions

Fuerza Regia – Gambusinos 20.08 Diablos Rojos – Lobos Plateados 21.08 Fuerza Regia – Gambusinos 21.08 Diablos Rojos – Lobos Plateados 22.08 Freseros – El Calor de Cancun 20.08 Dorados – Abejas de Leon 20.08

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gambusinos vs Diablos Rojos?

By the PropickAI model, Diablos Rojos is favoured — about 56% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Gambusinos vs Diablos Rojos?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Diablos Rojos. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Gambusinos vs Diablos Rojos start?

August 16, 2026.