FreeMatch preview

Basilan Steel — Sarangani Marlins

Basketball 21.07.2026 06:00 UTC
Favourite Basilan Steel best odds 1.01

AI analysis of team form, streaks and match statistics — full pick, probabilities and value below.

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Philippines. MPBL
Philippines. MPBL
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
21.07.2026 06:00 UTC
Finished

Philippines. MPBL

Basilan Steel - Sarangani Marlins

Basketball
Basilan Steel
Basilan Steel
93 : 86
Finished
Sarangani Marlins
Sarangani Marlins

Basilan Steel meet Sarangani Marlins on July 21, 2026 in the Philippines. MPBL.

Recent form (W-D-L): Basilan Steel 2-0-3, Sarangani Marlins 2-0-3. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Basilan Steel (odds1.69) Score 81:79 confidence 59% ✓ outcome correct
  • Basilan Steel: forma PVPPV (2-3)
  • Sarangani Marlins: forma PVPVP (2-3)
  • Model backs Basilan Steel: probability 59% vs 59% on the line (odds 1.69)
  • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Basilan Steel - Sarangani Marlins July 21, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Basilan Steel. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 91.6%
2 8.4%

Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Basilan Steel
1-4WLLLL
points for 69.9points against 79.2
Sarangani Marlins
0-5LLLLL
points for 79.7points against 101.7

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 21.07.2026 06:00 UTC
Market 1 91.6% @ 1.01 / 2 8.4% @ 11.00
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Match center

Basilan Steel - Sarangani Marlins

Form 5/5 recent games
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: form home - 59.1% fact: home hit / Brier 0.335 / LogLoss 0.527
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: form home - 53.6% fact: home hit / Brier 0.430 / LogLoss 0.623
Betting snapshot
1X2
1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 163.5 1.83 Fonbet · line only
Over 164.5 1.83 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.80 55.6%
1.83 54.6%
1.80 55.6%
1.90 52.6%
2.00 50.0%
1.90 52.6%
1.87 53.5%
1.77 56.5%
1.83 54.6%
1.77 56.5%
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.87 53.5%
1.83 54.6%
1.83 54.6%
1.94 51.6%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 163.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 164.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 165.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 166.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 167.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 168.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 169.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 170.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 171.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 172.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 173.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 174.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 175.5 1.77 56.5%
Over 176.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 177.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 178.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 179.5 1.76 56.8%
Over 180.5 1.93 51.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
1.01 99.0%
11.00 9.1%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0
2026-07-21 · Basilan Stil 93:86 Saragani Gripper
Source: ruscore
Basilan Steel
L W L L W
16.07 06:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Basilan Steel 71:87 Batangas CityBatangas City
06.07 06:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Basilan Steel 80:49 Marikina ShoemastersMarikina Shoemasters
02.07 08:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Basilan Steel 74:82 Zamboanga SikatZamboanga Sikat
11.06 10:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Basilan Steel 80:83 Quezon CityQuezon City
20.05 10:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Basilan Steel 76:73 Rizal Golden CoolersRizal Golden Coolers
2 Wins
3 Losses
76.2 Scored
74.8 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Sarangani Marlins
L W L W L
14.07 10:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Sarangani Marlins 77:104 Zamboanga SikatZamboanga Sikat
08.07 08:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Sarangani Marlins 84:74 Paranaque PatriotsParanaque Patriots
04.07 06:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Sarangani Marlins 76:110 San Juan Knights
01.07 06:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Sarangani Marlins 108:102 Negros HacienderosNegros Hacienderos
01.06 08:15 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Sarangani Marlins 59:89 Quezon HuskersQuezon Huskers
2 Wins
3 Losses
80.8 Scored
95.8 Conceded
40% Win percentage

Frequently asked questions

When does Basilan Steel vs Sarangani Marlins start?

July 21, 2026.