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PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff

05.08.2026 00:00 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

05.08.2026 00:00 UTC

Finished

PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff

Leones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada

Basketball

Leones de Ponce

70 : 93

Finished

Santeros de Aguada

Leones de Ponce face Santeros de Aguada on August 5, 2026 in the PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff.

Recent form (W-D-L): Leones de Ponce 0-0-5, Santeros de Aguada 5-0-0. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 51% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Leones de Ponce — 51%

Pure model vs market (1 · Leones de Ponce): model 58% · market 57% Δ +1 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Leones de Ponce51.1%

2 · Santeros de Aguada48.9%

Model estimate: win Leones de Ponce 51.1%, win Santeros de Aguada 48.9%. Model favourite — Leones de Ponce.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Leones de Ponce (odds1.61) Score 81:79 confidence 57% ✗ outcome missed

• Leones Ponse: forma PPPPP (0-5)
• Aguada Santeros: forma VVVVV (5-0)
• ochnye 0-3 (za 3)
• Model backs Leones Ponse: probability 57% vs 62% on the line (odds 1.61)
• no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada August 5, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Leones de Ponce.

Line favourite market consensus: Leones de Ponce. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.62 / 2 2.15
Glicko: Leones de Ponce 51.1% / Santeros de Aguada 48.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.6% 3 books

1 57.2%

2 42.8%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 05.08.2026 00:00 UTC

Market 1 57.0% @ 1.62 / 2 43.0% @ 2.15

Form 6 matches

H2H 3

Match center

Leones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 3 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Movement Line history

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 70:93

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 51.1% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.522 / LogLoss 0.715

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 50.4% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.509 / LogLoss 0.702

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Leones de Ponce 50.5% 51.1% market and model agree

Santeros de Aguada 49.5% 48.9%

1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 51.1% / 48.9% probabilities

Rating 1,561 / 1,403 Leones de Ponce / Santeros de Aguada

RD 122 / 118 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,317-1,805 / 1,167-1,639 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: P1 | odds 1.95 | edge 9.1% | ROI 13.2% | BetBoom

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.15 market consensus · weak value +5.2% · model 48.9%

1 1.61 market consensus · no value · model 51.1%

Total

Over 180.5 1.85 market consensus · line only

Over 181.5 1.87 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Leon
1.84 54.4%	1.85 54.1%	—
1.81 55.3%	1.82 55.0%	1.85 54.1%
1.79 55.9%	1.81 55.3%	—
1.87 53.5%	1.88 53.2%	1.85 54.1%
1.88 53.2%	1.90 52.6%	1.83 54.6%
—	—	1.80 55.6%
—	—	1.86 53.8%
1.84 54.4%	1.85 54.1%	1.88 53.2%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Leon
Over 180.5	1.86 53.8%	1.87 53.5%	1.83 54.6%
Over 181.5	—	—	1.87 53.5%
Over 182.5	1.80 55.6%	1.81 55.3%	1.82 55.0%
Over 183.5	1.82 55.0%	1.83 54.6%	—
Under 180.5	1.82 55.0%	1.83 54.6%	1.87 53.5%
Under 181.5	—	—	1.83 54.6%
Under 182.5	1.88 53.2%	1.89 52.9%	1.88 53.2%
Under 183.5	1.86 53.8%	1.87 53.5%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Leon
	1.61 62.1%	1.61 62.1%	1.62 61.7%
	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 5-0-5

2026-08-03 · Leones de Ponse 106:105 Aguada Santeros

2026-08-01 · Leones de Ponse 89:96 Aguada Santeros

2026-07-30 · Leones de Ponse 89:100 Aguada Santeros

2026-07-28 · Leones de Ponse 87:80 Aguada Santeros

2026-07-26 · Leones de Ponse 70:93 Aguada Santeros

Source: ruscore

Leones de Ponce

L L L L L

03.08 00:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff

Leones de Ponce 70:93 Aguada Santeros

01.08 00:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff

Leones de Ponce 70:93 Aguada Santeros

29.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff

Leones de Ponce 70:93 Aguada Santeros

27.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff

Leones de Ponce 70:93 Aguada Santeros

25.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff

Leones de Ponce 70:93 Aguada Santeros

0 Wins

5 Losses

70.0 Scored

93.0 Conceded

0% Win percentage

Santeros de Aguada

W W W W W

03.08 00:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff