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Superior Nasional
Superior Nasional International
28.07.2026 00:00 UTC Match prediction
28.07.2026 00:00 UTC
Finished

Superior Nasional

Leones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada

International Basketball
Leones de Ponce
Leones de Ponce
87 : 80
Finished
Santeros de Aguada
Santeros de Aguada
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Leones de Ponce — 61%

Pure model vs market (1 · Leones de Ponce): model 55% · market 60% Δ −5 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Leones de Ponce ✓ Pick60.9%
market60%
2 · Santeros de Aguada39.1%
market40%

Model estimate: win Leones de Ponce 60.9%, win Santeros de Aguada 39.1%. Model favourite — Leones de Ponce.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Leones de Ponce (odds1.34) Score 83:77 Under 184.5 (odds2.03) ✓ Handicap H2 +7.5 (odds1.85) ✓ confidence 67% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Leones de Ponse: forma PVVVP (3-2)
  • • Santeras de Aguada: forma VVP (2-1)
  • • ochnye 0-1 (za 1)
  • • liniya na pik P1 1.30→1.35 (udlinilas — rynok dreyfuet vs)
  • • Model backs Leones de Ponse: probability 67% vs 75% on the line (odds 1.34)
  • • no edge over the line (-8 pp) — informational only
  • • Total: Under 184.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 184.5 (odds 2.03)
  • • Handicap F2 +7.5: score forecast 83:77 (diff +6) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada July 28, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Leones de Ponce.

Line favourite Fonbet: Leones de Ponce. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.53 / 2 2.33
  • Glicko: Leones de Ponce 60.9% / Santeros de Aguada 39.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.3%
1 ✓ Pick 60.4%
2 39.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.30 ↑ 1.53
Winner 2 3.20 ↓ 2.33

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:4/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Kimi

Google AI updated28.07.2026 01:24 UTC
1 58% ✓ favourite
2 42%
Score93:88 Total points: Over 174.5 Bet:AH1(-3.5)
Per AI data H2H: 2:2
Claude updated28.07.2026 01:36 UTC
1 62% ✓ favourite
2 38%
Score96:89 Total points: Over 181.5 Bet:1 (win Leones de Ponse) at 1.67
Qwen updated28.07.2026 01:32 UTC
1 78% ✓ favourite
2 7%
Score2:0 Total points: Under 2.5 Bet:Win DAC Dunayska Streda
Per AI data H2H: 0-0
GLM 5.2 updated28.07.2026 01:51 UTC
1 45%
2 55% ✓ favourite
Score98:92 Total points: Over 210.5 Bet:Santeros de Aguada +3.5
Per AI data Form:3W-2L / 4W-1L H2H: Santeros lead 1-0 in series Injuries:Murphy questionable for Ponce

AI consensus:1

AI 1 2 Score Total points Bet
Google AI 58% 42% 93:88 Over 174.5 AH1(-3.5)
Claude 62% 38% 96:89 Over 181.5
Qwen 78% 7% 2:0 Under 2.5 Win DAC Dunayska Streda
GLM 5.2 45% 55% 98:92 Over 210.5 Santeros de Aguada +3.5

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 00:00 UTC
Form 6 matches
H2H 1
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Leones de Ponce 61%
📐 Math model Leones de Ponce 61%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Leones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/3 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 87:80
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 60.9% fact: home hit / ROI 54.0% / Brier 0.306 / LogLoss 0.496
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 54.4% fact: home hit / ROI 54.0% / Brier 0.417 / LogLoss 0.610
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Leones de Ponce 61.4% 60.9% market and model agree
Santeros de Aguada 38.7% 39.1%
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 60.9% / 39.1% probabilities
Rating 1,816 / 1,735 Leones de Ponce / Santeros de Aguada
RD 235 / 270 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,346-2,285 / 1,195-2,276 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.33 Fonbet · no value · model 39.1%
1 1.53 Fonbet · no value · model 60.9%
Total
Over 158.5 1.45 Fonbet · line only
Over 159.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4% —
1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4% —
1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% —
1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8% —
1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8% —
1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6% —
— — 2.00 50.0%
— — 1.30 76.9%
— — 1.40 71.4%
— — 1.30 76.9%
— — 1.32 75.8%
— — 1.45 69.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 158.5 — — 1.45 69.0%
Over 159.5 — — 1.55 64.5%
Over 160.5 — — 1.37 73.0%
Over 161.5 — — 1.35 74.1%
Over 162.5 — — 1.85 54.1%
Over 163.5 — — 1.55 64.5%
Over 164.5 — — 1.82 55.0%
Over 165.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Over 166.5 — — 1.88 53.2%
Over 167.5 — — 2.15 46.5%
Over 184.5 1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6% —
Over 186.5 1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1% —
Under 184.5 1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% —
Under 186.5 1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.47 68.0% 1.48 67.6% 1.53 65.4% 1.54 64.9%
2.45 40.8% 2.45 40.8% 2.33 42.9% 2.32 43.1%
Match center
Leones de Ponce
L W W W L
26.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Leones de Ponce 77:136 Santeras de Aguada
19.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Leones de Ponce 100:86 San-GermanSan-German
17.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Leones de Ponce 98:90 San-GermanSan-German
15.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Leones de Ponce 94:91 San-GermanSan-German
13.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Leones de Ponce 91:95 San-GermanSan-German
3 Wins
2 Losses
92.0 Scored
99.6 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Santeros de Aguada
W W L
26.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Santeros de Aguada 136:77 Leones de PonseLeones de Ponse
20.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Santeros de Aguada 101:94 Kapitanes de AresiboKapitanes de Aresibo
18.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Santeros de Aguada 81:89 Kapitanes de AresiboKapitanes de Aresibo
2 Wins
1 Losses
106.0 Scored
86.7 Conceded
67% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLeones de Ponce - Santeros de Aguada

Leones de Ponce
1 matches total
Santeros de Aguada
Leones de Ponce: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Santeros de Aguada: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Santeras de Aguada 77:136 (26.07 00:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 213 goals (77:136, 26.07 00:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

26.07 00:00 UTC Superior Nasional
Leones de Ponse
77:136
Santeras de Aguada