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WNBA. Outrights
WNBA. Outrights
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Finished

WNBA. Outrights

Chicago - Phoenix Mercury (w)

Basketball
Chicago
Chicago
101 : 106
Finished
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w)

Chicago take on Phoenix Mercury (w) on August 4, 2026 in the WNBA. Outrights.

Recent form (W-D-L): Chicago 3-0-2, Phoenix Mercury (w) 2-0-3. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Chicago (odds1.81) Score 81:79 confidence 53% ✗ outcome missed
  • Chikago Skay (Zh): forma VVPPV (3-2)
  • Finiks Merkyuri (Zh): forma PVVPP (2-3)
  • ochnye 1-0 (za 1)
  • Model backs Chikago Skay (Zh): probability 53% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.81)
  • no edge over the line (-2 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Chicago - Phoenix Mercury (w) August 4, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Phoenix Mercury (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 2.04 / 2 1.82

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.6% 3 books · best price +1.1%
1 47.4%
2 52.6%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Chicago
47%
2.04
Phoenix Mercury (w)
53%
1.82
Handicap
Chicago (1.5)
49%
1.90
Phoenix Mercury (w) (1.5)
51%
1.86
Total
Over 175.5
50%
1.90
Under 175.5
50%
1.90

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Chicago
#5GP 3212-20
Phoenix Mercury (w)
#7GP 3312-21

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Chicago
5-5LWWLLWWLWL
points for 92.7points against 91.1
Phoenix Mercury (w)
4-6LLWWWLWLLL
points for 85.9points against 89.5

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Market 1 47.2% @ 2.04 / 2 52.8% @ 1.82
🏦 Virtual bank $10,000
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Match center

Chicago - Phoenix Mercury (w)

Form 5/4 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form away - 51.9% fact: away hit / ROI 82.0% / Brier 0.464 / LogLoss 0.657
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form away - 50.7% fact: away hit / ROI 82.0% / Brier 0.485 / LogLoss 0.678
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.81 market consensus · line only
1 2.01 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 175.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
Over 177.5 1.89 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.90 52.6%
1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0%
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8%
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6% 1.92 52.1% 1.90 52.6%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
Over 175.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
Over 177.5 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6%
Over 178.5 1.87 53.5% 1.93 51.8%
Over 179.5 1.90 52.6% 1.94 51.6%
Over 180.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 181.5 1.90 52.6%
Under 175.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
Under 177.5 1.93 51.8% 1.90 52.6%
Under 178.5 1.93 51.8% 1.87 53.5%
Under 179.5 1.90 52.6%
Under 180.5 1.93 51.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.04 49.0%
1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0%
Match center
Chicago
W W L L W
31.07 17:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Chicago 84:83 Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)
30.07 22:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Chicago 94:88 Konnektikut San (Zh)Konnektikut San (Zh)
22.07 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Chicago 94:95 Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)
19.07 18:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Chicago 91:93 Atlanta Drim (Zh)Atlanta Drim (Zh)
17.07 21:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Chicago 96:82 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
3 Wins
2 Losses
91.8 Scored
88.2 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Phoenix Mercury (w)
L W L L
01.08 19:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 92:94 Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)
22.07 17:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 86:82 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
19.07 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 83:96 Konnektikut San (Zh)Konnektikut San (Zh)
18.07 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 83:96 Konnektikut San (Zh)Konnektikut San (Zh)
1 Wins
3 Losses
86.0 Scored
92.0 Conceded
25% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyChicago - Phoenix Mercury (w)

Chicago
1 matches total
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Chicago: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Phoenix Mercury (w): 1 (100%)
Biggest win Chikago Skay (Zh) 77:66 (08.07 00:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 143 goals (77:66, 08.07 00:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history

08.07 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Chikago Skay (Zh)
77:66
Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)