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AI verdict

AI pick LA Sparks win probability ~52% best odds 1.83

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to LA Sparks. Full breakdown below.

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WNBA. Outrights
WNBA. Outrights
18.08.2026 23:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
18.08.2026 23:00 UTC
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WNBA. Outrights

Connecticut - LA Sparks

Basketball
Connecticut
Connecticut
- : -
Not started
LA Sparks
LA Sparks

Connecticut face LA Sparks on August 18, 2026 in the WNBA. Outrights.

Recent form (W-D-L): Connecticut 2-0-3, LA Sparks 2-0-3. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PropickAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 LA Sparks — 52%

1 · Connecticut47.7%
2 · LA Sparks52.3%

Model estimate: win Connecticut 47.7%, win LA Sparks 52.3%. Model favourite — LA Sparks.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2LA Sparks (odds1.81) Score 79:81 confidence 52%
  • • Konnektikut San (Zh): forma PPVPP (1-4)
  • • Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh): forma PPPPV (1-4)
  • • ochnye 1-0 (za 1)
  • • Model backs Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh): probability 52% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.81)
  • • no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Connecticut - LA Sparks August 18, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: LA Sparks. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 2.02 / 2 1.83

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.1% 5 books · best price +1.7%
1 47.4%
2 52.6%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Connecticut
47%
2.02
LA Sparks
53%
1.83
Total
Over 170.5
51%
1.88
Under 170.5
49%
1.93

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Connecticut
#7GP 338-25
LA Sparks
#7GP 3412-22

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

30Wins23
79.5Points on average76.6

Head-to-head matches: 53 · average total 156.1 (points)

Team form

Connecticut
3-7WWLLLLLWLL
points for 79.1points against 89.2
LA Sparks
2-8LLLWLWLLLL
points for 87.2points against 91.0

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 18.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Market 1 47.5% @ 2.02 / 2 52.5% @ 1.83
Form 6 matches
H2H 1
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model LA Sparks 52%
💹 Market LA Sparks 53%
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Match center

Connecticut - LA Sparks

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Connecticut 47.4% 47.7%
LA Sparks 52.6% 52.3% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 47.7% / 52.3% probabilities
Rating 1,374 / 1,381 Connecticut / LA Sparks
RD 116 / 109 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,141-1,607 / 1,163-1,598 strength interval

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.81 market consensus · no value · model 52.3%
1 2.01 market consensus · no value · model 47.7%
Total
Over 168.5 1.72 market consensus · line only
Over 169.5 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% — — 1.90 52.6%
— — — — 2.58 38.8%
— — 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
— — — — 1.51 66.2%
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.92 52.1% 1.92 52.1% 1.90 52.6%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM
Over 168.5 — — 1.72 58.1%
Over 169.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
Over 170.5 1.87 53.5% — 1.88 53.2%
Over 171.5 1.90 52.6% — 1.97 50.8%
Over 172.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Over 173.5 1.90 52.6% — —
Over 174.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 170.5 1.93 51.8% — —
Under 171.5 1.90 52.6% — —
Under 172.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 173.5 1.90 52.6% — —
Under 174.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% 2.02 49.5% 2.02 49.5%
1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 7-0-3
2026-05-30 · Konnektikut San (Zh) 84:81 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
2025-08-08 · Konnektikut San (Zh) 91:102 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
2025-07-24 · Konnektikut San (Zh) 86:101 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
2025-07-13 · Konnektikut San (Zh) 88:92 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
2024-09-11 · Konnektikut San (Zh) 86:66 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
Source: ruscore
Connecticut
L L W W L
2026-08-15 WNBA 2026
Connecticut Connecticut 75:82 NY Liberty
2026-08-13 WNBA 2026
Connecticut Connecticut 69:104 Atlanta
2026-08-07 WNBA 2026
Connecticut Connecticut 75:72 Phoenix
2026-07-14 WNBA 2026
Connecticut Connecticut 90:87 Portland Fire
2026-07-10 WNBA 2026
Connecticut Connecticut 64:79 Golden State
2 Wins
3 Losses
74.6 Scored
84.8 Conceded
40% Win percentage
LA Sparks
L L W L W
2026-08-15 WNBA 2026
Washington 80:70 LA Sparks LA Sparks
2026-08-14 WNBA 2026
NY Liberty 85:81 LA Sparks LA Sparks
2026-08-07 WNBA 2026
Minnesota 82:89 LA Sparks LA Sparks
2026-08-06 WNBA 2026
Chicago 95:88 LA Sparks LA Sparks
2026-08-02 WNBA 2026
Portland Fire 101:106 LA Sparks LA Sparks
2 Wins
3 Losses
86.8 Scored
88.6 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Connecticut - LA Sparks

Connecticut
3 matches total
LA Sparks
Connecticut: 1 (33.3%)
Draws:0 (0%)
LA Sparks: 2 (66.7%)
Biggest win LA Sparks 86:101 (2025-07-24) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 193 goals (102:91, 2025-08-08) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

2026-05-30 WNBA 2026
Connecticut 84:81 LA Sparks
2025-08-08 WNBA 2026
LA Sparks 102:91 Connecticut
2025-07-24 WNBA 2026
Connecticut 86:101 LA Sparks

More predictions

Las Vegas Aces – Connecticut 21.08 LA Sparks – Atlanta 21.08 Golden State Valkyries (w) –Dallas Vings (Zh) 18.08 Toronto (w) – Indiana 18.08 Las Vegas Aces – Atlanta 19.08 Chicago – NY Liberty 19.08

Frequently asked questions

When does Connecticut vs LA Sparks start?

August 18, 2026.