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Start
11.07.2026 20:00 UTC
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11.07.2026 20:00 UTC
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Prematch data
–Line
✓Form
–H2H
–Prediction
11.07.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished
WNBA. Outrights
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury (w) — Basketball prediction
106
:
58
Finished
Las Vegas Aces meet Phoenix Mercury (w) on July 11, 2026 in the WNBA. Outrights.
Recent form (W-D-L): Las Vegas Aces 4-0-1, Phoenix Mercury (w) 1-0-4. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PropickAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Las Vegas Aces (odds1.23)
Score 83:77
Under 168.5
(odds2.33) ✓
Handicap H2 +10.5
(odds1.90) ✓
confidence 69%
✓ outcome correct
- • Las Vegas Eyses (Zh): forma PVPVV (3-2)
- • Finiks Merkyuri (Zh): forma PVPPP (1-4)
- • Model backs Las Vegas Eyses (Zh): probability 69%
- • Total: Under 168.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
- • at line 168.5 (odds 2.33)
- • Handicap F2 +10.5: covers the line (odds 1.90).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Las Vegas Aces - Phoenix Mercury (w) July 11, 2026
Basketball math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 5.3%
1
94.1%
2
5.9%
Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Standing in the tournament
League table
Las Vegas Aces
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.
Head-to-head and form stats
Head-to-head and form
Team form
Las Vegas Aces
6-4WWLLWWLLWW
points for 88.0points against 87.7
Phoenix Mercury (w)
2-8LWLLLWLLLL
points for 85.2points against 90.9
Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.
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Match center
Las Vegas Aces - Phoenix Mercury (w)
Form
5/5
recent games
Betting snapshot
1X2
1
1.01
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 145.5
1.28
Fonbet · line only
Over 146.5
1.35
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match marketsHandicap
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 2.35 42.6% | |
| 2.25 44.4% | |
| 2.07 48.3% | |
| 2.30 43.5% | |
| 2.15 46.5% | |
| 2.00 50.0% | |
| 2.40 41.7% | |
| 2.30 43.5% | |
| 2.25 44.4% | |
| 2.25 44.4% | |
| 2.30 43.5% | |
| 2.40 41.7% | |
| 2.25 44.4% | |
| 2.30 43.5% | |
| 2.25 44.4% | |
| 2.15 46.5% | |
| 2.30 43.5% | |
| 2.40 41.7% |
Total
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 145.5 | 1.28 78.1% |
| Over 146.5 | 1.35 74.1% |
| Over 147.5 | 1.25 80.0% |
| Over 148.5 | 1.35 74.1% |
| Over 149.5 | 1.45 69.0% |
| Over 150.5 | 1.60 62.5% |
| Over 151.5 | 1.85 54.1% |
| Over 152.5 | 2.02 49.5% |
| Over 153.5 | 1.45 69.0% |
| Over 154.5 | 1.60 62.5% |
| Over 155.5 | 1.65 60.6% |
| Over 156.5 | 1.57 63.7% |
| Over 157.5 | 2.10 47.6% |
| Over 158.5 | 1.95 51.3% |
| Over 159.5 | 1.90 52.6% |
| Over 160.5 | 2.80 35.7% |
| Over 161.5 | 2.40 41.7% |
| Over 162.5 | 2.65 37.7% |
Outcome (1X2)
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 1.01 99.0% | |
| 16.00 6.3% |
Match center
Las Vegas Aces
W
L
W
W
W
Las Vegas Aces
88:80
Portlend (Zh)
Portlend (Zh)
Las Vegas Aces
68:84
Indiana Fiver (Zh)
Indiana Fiver (Zh)
Las Vegas Aces
98:90
Chikago Skay (Zh)
Chikago Skay (Zh)
Las Vegas Aces
100:97
Minnesota Links (Zh)
Minnesota Links (Zh)
Las Vegas Aces
105:89
Portlend (Zh)
Portlend (Zh)
4
Wins
1
Losses
91.8
Scored
88.0
Conceded
80%
Win percentage
Phoenix Mercury (w)
L
L
W
L
L
Phoenix Mercury (w)
89:92
Indiana Fiver (Zh)
Indiana Fiver (Zh)
Phoenix Mercury (w)
66:77
Chikago Skay (Zh)
Chikago Skay (Zh)
Phoenix Mercury (w)
90:67
Siettl Storm (Zh)
Siettl Storm (Zh)
Phoenix Mercury (w)
102:111
Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
Phoenix Mercury (w)
70:85
Dallas Vings (Zh)
Dallas Vings (Zh)
1
Wins
4
Losses
83.4
Scored
86.4
Conceded
20%
Win percentage
Match center
Full head-to-head history: Las Vegas Aces - Phoenix Mercury (w)
Las Vegas Aces
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most points in a game
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Las Vegas Aces - Phoenix Mercury (w) breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form
Frequently asked questions
What does PropickAI predict for Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury (w)?
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Las Vegas Aces. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
What are the bookmaker odds for Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury (w)?
Live odds for Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury (w) from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.
When does Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury (w) start?
July 11, 2026.