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Minnesota — Connecticut

Basketball 05.07.2026 22:00 UTC
Favourite Minnesota best odds 1.06

AI analysis of team form, streaks and match statistics — full pick, probabilities and value below.

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WNBA. Outrights
WNBA. Outrights
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
05.07.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished

WNBA. Outrights

Minnesota - Connecticut

Basketball
Minnesota
Minnesota
89 : 90
Finished
Connecticut
Connecticut

Minnesota go head-to-head with Connecticut on July 5, 2026 in the WNBA. Outrights.

Recent form (W-D-L): Minnesota 3-0-2, Connecticut 0-0-5. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PropickAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Minnesota - Connecticut July 5, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Minnesota. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.06 / 2 9.20

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 89.7%
2 10.3%

Odds source: Betcity line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Minnesota
#1GP 3730-7
Connecticut
#7GP 349-25

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

26Wins26
50.0%Win %50.0%
81.7Points per game81.4
92.5Offensive rating95.9
92.2Defensive rating96.3
0.3Point differential-0.3
60.6Assists62.0
102.9Rebounds111.7
33.3%3-pointers, %34.8%

Team form

Minnesota
Overall LWWLW Net +19.9
Home LW Net +24.4
Away LWWW Net +16.2
Connecticut
Overall LWWLL Net -14.3
Home LWWLL Net -6.0
Away L Net -24.4

Team stats

Minnesota Overall · Home/Away Connecticut
75.0%H 66.7% · A 81.8%Win %20.0%H 27.3% · A 11.1%
19.9H 24.4 · A 16.2Point differential-14.3H -6.0 · A -24.4
90.3H 91.8 · A 89.0Points per game79.5H 82.3 · A 76.0
80.3H 79.6 · A 80.9Conceded86.6H 85.3 · A 88.2
48.1%H 49.3% · A 47.1%FG, %42.5%H 42.7% · A 42.1%
60.0H 77.8 · A 45.51st half50.0H 54.6 · A 44.4
82.6H 82.3 · A 82.8Pace82.2H 82.7 · A 81.6
109.4H 109.7 · A 109.1Offensive rating96.8H 95.7 · A 98.2
97.3H 97.6 · A 97.1Defensive rating105.5H 104.3 · A 107.0

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Minnesota Total (over) Connecticut
90.3 Points per game 79.5
75.0%
O 81.5
40.0%
75.0%
O 82.5
30.0%
75.0%
O 83.5
25.0%
75.0%
O 84.5srednee
20.0%
65.0%
O 85.5
20.0%
60.0%
O 86.5
20.0%
55.0%
O 87.5
20.0%
45.0%
O 88.5
20.0%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Minnesota Total (over) Connecticut
10.0%
O 102.5
0.0%
10.0%
O 103.5
0.0%
10.0%
O 104.5
0.0%
10.0%
O 105.5
0.0%
10.0%
O 106.5
0.0%
5.0%
O 107.5
0.0%
5.0%
O 108.5
0.0%
5.0%
O 109.5
0.0%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Minnesota 47.2 / Connecticut 40.1

Minnesota Total (over) Connecticut
55.0%
O 42.5
45.0%
55.0%
O 43.5srednee
40.0%
55.0%
O 44.5
35.0%
45.0%
O 45.5
30.0%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Minnesota 43.1 / Connecticut —

Minnesota Total (over) Connecticut
65.0%
O 40.5
30.0%
60.0%
O 41.5
30.0%
55.0%
O 42.5
30.0%
50.0%
O 43.5srednee
30.0%

Lineups and availability

Injuries and lineups

Minnesota Lynx
  • Dorka Juhasz F • SprainOut
    Juhasz (foot) is out for Friday's game against the Liberty.
  • Napheesa Collier F • SprainOut
    Collier (ankle) has been cleared to resume practices with the Lynx, the team announced Wednesday.
  • Emma Cechova F • SurgeryOut
    Cechova (knee) was diagnosed with a torn ACL in her right knee and will undergo surgery, Meghan L. Hall of USA Today reports. She will miss the remainder of the season.
Connecticut Sun
  • Ashlon Jackson GOut
    out
  • Hailey Van Lith GOut
    Van Lith (coach's decision) is out for Thursday's game against the Wings.

Injury and player availability data: ESPN. For reference.

Rest and schedule

Team freshness

Minnesota
Normal schedule
  • Rest days: 2
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
Connecticut
Normal schedule
  • Rest days: 3
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)

Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.

Totals and pace

Team scoring

Minnesota
175.4 points/match (over 8)
  • Scores: 94.5
  • Concedes: 80.9
Connecticut
163.7 points/match (over 10)
  • Scores: 76.9
  • Concedes: 86.8
Total line: 167.5 · projection from form: 169.6 · Over in 56% of recent games

Average scoring and pace — from matches played in our database. For reference, not a prediction.

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Match center
Start 05.07.2026 22:00 UTC
Market 1 89.7% @ 1.06 / 2 10.3% @ 9.20
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Match center

Minnesota - Connecticut

Form 4/5 recent games
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.20 market consensus · line only
1 1.06 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 167.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
Under 167.5 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Betcity
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%

Total

Outcome Betcity
Over 167.5 1.90 52.6%
Under 167.5 1.90 52.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Betcity
1.06 94.3%
9.20 10.9%
Match center
Minnesota
L L W W
03.07 21:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Minnesota 86:99 Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)
13.06 22:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Minnesota 97:100 Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)
09.06 22:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Minnesota 100:76 Dallas Vings (Zh)Dallas Vings (Zh)
02.06 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Minnesota 111:77 Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)
2 Wins
2 Losses
98.5 Scored
88.0 Conceded
50% Win percentage
Connecticut
L L L L L
02.07 22:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Connecticut 83:86 Dallas Vings (Zh)Dallas Vings (Zh)
13.06 20:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Connecticut 75:85 Indiana Fiver (Zh)Indiana Fiver (Zh)
10.06 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Connecticut 102:106 Toronto Tempo (Zh)Toronto Tempo (Zh)
08.06 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Connecticut 80:89 Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)
05.06 21:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Connecticut 80:85 Chikago Skay (Zh)Chikago Skay (Zh)
0 Wins
5 Losses
84.0 Scored
90.2 Conceded
0% Win percentage

Frequently asked questions

When does Minnesota vs Connecticut start?

July 5, 2026.