PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
WNBA
WNBA International
18.07.2026 02:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data –Line ✓Form –H2H –Prediction
18.07.2026 02:00 UTC
Finished

WNBA

Phoenix Mercury (w) - Connecticut Sun (w)

International Basketball
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w)
81 : 96
Finished
Connecticut Sun (w)
Connecticut Sun (w)

Phoenix Mercury (w) go head-to-head with Connecticut Sun (w) on July 18, 2026 in the WNBA, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Phoenix Mercury (w) 0-0-3, Connecticut Sun (w) 0-0-1. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Phoenix Mercury (w) (odds1.48) Score 82:78 Under 160.5 (odds2.03) ✗ Handicap H2 +4.5 (odds1.90) ✗ confidence 63% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Finiks (zh): forma PPPV (1-3)
  • • Konnektikut (zh): forma PV (1)
  • • Model backs Finiks (zh): probability 63% vs 68% on the line (odds 1.48)
  • • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only
  • • Total: Under 160.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 160.5 (odds 2.03)
  • • Handicap F2 +4.5: score forecast 82:78 (diff +4) covers the line (odds 1.90).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Phoenix Mercury (w) - Connecticut Sun (w) July 18, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Phoenix Mercury (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.02 / 2 10.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.1% 4 books · best price +1.3%
1 61.6%
2 38.4%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

20Wins28
80.8Points on average83.0

Head-to-head matches: 48 · average total 163.8 (points)

Team form

Phoenix Mercury (w)
4-6LLLLWWWLWL
points for 85.9points against 92.3
Connecticut Sun (w)
3-7WLLWWLLLLL
points for 80.6points against 88.8

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:4/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Kimi

Google AI updated03.08.2026 17:09 UTC
1 62% ✓ favourite
2 38%
Score86:81 Total points: Over 165.5 Bet:Handicap 1 (-3.5)
Per AI data Form:WLLLL / WLLWL
Claude updated18.07.2026 03:23 UTC
1 63% ✓ favourite
2 37%
Score86:81 Total points: Over 163.5 Bet:1 (win Finiksa) at 1.57
Qwen updated18.07.2026 03:20 UTC
1 62% ✓ favourite
2 38%
Score84:76 Total points: Under 165.5 Bet:1 (win Finiksa)
GLM 5.2 updated18.07.2026 03:38 UTC
1 62% ✓ favourite
2 38%
Score88:82 Total points: Under 163.5 Bet:1 with handicap -4.5

AI consensus:1

AI 1 2 Score Total points Bet
Google AI 62% 38% 86:81 Over 165.5 Handicap 1 (-3.5)
Claude 63% 37% 86:81 Over 163.5
Qwen 62% 38% 84:76 Under 165.5
GLM 5.2 62% 38% 88:82 Under 163.5

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 18.07.2026 02:00 UTC
Market 1 91.1% @ 1.02 / 2 8.9% @ 10.50
Match center

Phoenix Mercury (w) - Connecticut Sun (w)

Form 3/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 81:96
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.47 market consensus · line only
1 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 134.5 1.28 Fonbet · line only
Over 135.5 1.35 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0% —
1.90 52.6% — —
1.85 54.1% 1.84 54.4% —
1.90 52.6% — —
— — 2.90 34.5%
— — 1.67 59.9%
— — 1.42 70.4%
— — 1.42 70.4%
— — 1.50 66.7%
— — 1.40 71.4%
— — 2.55 39.2%
— — 2.60 38.5%
— — 1.97 50.8%
— — 2.00 50.0%
— — 1.95 51.3%
— — 1.37 73.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 134.5 — — 1.28 78.1%
Over 135.5 — — 1.35 74.1%
Over 136.5 — — 1.47 68.0%
Over 137.5 — — 1.62 61.7%
Over 138.5 — — 1.23 81.3%
Over 139.5 — — 1.32 75.8%
Over 162.5 1.90 52.6% — —
Over 163.5 1.87 53.5% 1.92 52.1% —
Over 164.5 1.93 51.8% 1.86 53.8% —
Over 165.5 1.90 52.6% — —
Under 162.5 1.90 52.6% — —
Under 163.5 1.93 51.8% 1.88 53.2% —
Under 164.5 1.87 53.5% 1.94 51.6% —
Under 165.5 1.90 52.6% — —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.56 64.1% 1.54 64.9% 1.02 98.0% 1.57 63.7%
2.43 41.2% 2.50 40.0% 10.50 9.5% 2.48 40.3%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 3-0-7
2026-07-18 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 83:96 Konnektikut San (Zh)
2025-09-06 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 84:87 Konnektikut San (Zh)
2025-08-06 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 82:66 Konnektikut San (Zh)
2025-06-18 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 83:75 Konnektikut San (Zh)
2024-09-14 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 69:88 Konnektikut San (Zh)
Source: ruscore

Match stats

49 Ball possession 51
50 2-kh broskov vsego 49
26 2-kh realizovano 30
15 3-kh broskov vsego 20
4 3-kh realizovano 6
23 Shtrafnykh broskov vsego 23
19 Shtrafnykh broskov realizovano 18
27 Vsego podborov 34
4 Podbory v napadenii 7
23 Podbory v zaschite 27
18 Rezultativnye peredachi 24
2 Blok-shoty 5
13 Poteri 11
5 Perekhvaty 7
18 Fouls 21
4 Half-auty 2
2 Komandnye poteri myacha 0
11 Komandnye podbory 5
0 Vremya v liderstve 2382
0 Komanda lidiruet 1
0 Maksimalnoe preimuschestvo 20
Source: ruscore
Phoenix Mercury (w)
L L L
14.07 01:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 100:104 Minnesota (zh)
10.07 02:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 89:92 Indiana (zh)
08.07 02:00 UTC WNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 66:77 Chikago (zh)Chikago (zh)
0 Wins
3 Losses
85.0 Scored
91.0 Conceded
0% Win percentage
Connecticut Sun (w)
L
10.07 23:30 UTC WNBA
Connecticut Sun (w) 64:79 Golden Steyt (zh)Golden Steyt (zh)
0 Wins
1 Losses
64.0 Scored
79.0 Conceded
0% Win percentage