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AI verdict

AI pick Washington Mystics (w) win probability ~54% best odds 1.08

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Washington Mystics (w). Full breakdown below.

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WNBA
WNBA International
28.08.2026 02:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
28.08.2026 02:00 UTC
Finished

WNBA

Phoenix Mercury (w) vs Washington Mystics (w) — Basketball prediction

International Basketball
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w)
61 : 50
Finished
Washington Mystics (w)
Washington Mystics (w)

Phoenix Mercury (w) face Washington Mystics (w) on August 28, 2026 in the WNBA, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Phoenix Mercury (w) 1-0-4, Washington Mystics (w) 4-0-1. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 46% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PropickAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Washington Mystics (w) — 54%

1 · Phoenix Mercury (w)45.6%
2 · Washington Mystics (w)54.4%

Model estimate: win Phoenix Mercury (w) 45.6%, win Washington Mystics (w) 54.4%. Model favourite — Washington Mystics (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Washington Mystics (w)

Model confidence 87% ~91% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Phoenix Mercury (w) - Washington Mystics (w) August 28, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Washington Mystics (w).

Line favourite Fonbet: Washington Mystics (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 7.10 / 2 1.08
  • Glicko: Phoenix Mercury (w) 45.6% / Washington Mystics (w) 54.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 6.7%
1 13.2%
2 86.8%

Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 2.12 ↑ 2.80
Winner 2 1.72 ↓ 1.44

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Phoenix Mercury (w)
#6GP 3813-25
Washington Mystics (w)
#3GP 3823-15

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

30Wins16
84.7Points on average81.7

Head-to-head matches: 46 · average total 166.4 (points)

Team form

Phoenix Mercury (w)
3-7WLWLLLWLLL
points for 87.0points against 91.8
Washington Mystics (w)
7-3WWLLWWLWWW
points for 86.2points against 82.1

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 28.08.2026 02:00 UTC
Market 1 13.2% @ 7.10 / 2 86.8% @ 1.08
Form 6 matches
H2H 2
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Washington Mystics (w) 54%
💹 Market Washington Mystics (w) 87%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Phoenix Mercury (w) - Washington Mystics (w)

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 2 ochnykh vstrech.

H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 61:50
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 54.4% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.591 / LogLoss 0.785
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 51.8% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.536 / LogLoss 0.729
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Phoenix Mercury (w) 34.0% 45.6%
Washington Mystics (w) 66.0% 54.4% market and model agree
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 45.6% / 54.4% probabilities
Rating 1,397 / 1,573 Phoenix Mercury (w) / Washington Mystics (w)
RD 121 / 117 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,154-1,639 / 1,339-1,807 strength interval

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.08 Fonbet · no value · model 54.4%
1 7.10 Fonbet · weak value +223.9% · model 45.6%
Total
Over 145.5 1.25 Fonbet · line only
Over 146.5 1.35 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.35 74.1%
2.50 40.0%
2.45 40.8%
2.45 40.8%
2.15 46.5%
2.35 42.6%
2.60 38.5%
2.00 50.0%
1.32 75.8%
1.30 76.9%
1.52 65.8%
1.38 72.5%
1.37 73.0%
1.95 51.3%
1.70 58.8%
1.52 65.8%
1.40 71.4%
1.30 76.9%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 145.5 1.25 80.0%
Over 146.5 1.35 74.1%
Over 147.5 1.45 69.0%
Over 148.5 1.60 62.5%
Over 149.5 1.28 78.1%
Over 150.5 1.25 80.0%
Over 151.5 1.35 74.1%
Over 152.5 1.53 65.4%
Over 153.5 1.57 63.7%
Over 154.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 155.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 156.5 2.10 47.6%
Over 157.5 2.70 37.0%
Over 158.5 3.20 31.3%
Over 159.5 2.20 45.5%
Over 160.5 2.45 40.8%
Over 161.5 2.70 37.0%
Over 162.5 2.55 39.2%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
7.10 14.1%
1.08 92.6%
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Phoenix Mercury (w) - Washington Mystics (w)

Phoenix Mercury (w)
3 matches total
Washington Mystics (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w): 0 (0%)
Washington Mystics (w): 3 (100%)
Biggest win Washington Mystics (w) 95:75 (2026-08-09) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 178 points (84:94, 2026-08-26) most points in a game

Match history

2026-08-26 WNBA 2026
Phoenix Mercury (w) 84:94 Washington Mystics (w)
2026-08-09 WNBA 2026
Washington Mystics (w) 95:75 Phoenix Mercury (w)
26.08 02:00 UTC ZhNBA
Finiks (zh)
60:77
Vashington (zh)

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Phoenix Mercury (w) vs Washington Mystics (w)?

By the PropickAI model, Washington Mystics (w) is favoured — about 54% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Phoenix Mercury (w) vs Washington Mystics (w)?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Washington Mystics (w). Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Phoenix Mercury (w) vs Washington Mystics (w)?

Live odds for Phoenix Mercury (w) vs Washington Mystics (w) from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Phoenix Mercury (w) vs Washington Mystics (w) start?

August 28, 2026.