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England: Cup Angliyskoy ligi - Predvaritelnyy raund
England: Cup Angliyskoy ligi - Predvaritelnyy raund
02.08.2026 18:30 UTC Match prediction
02.08.2026 18:30 UTC
Finished

England: Cup Angliyskoy ligi - Predvaritelnyy raund

Worcester City - Merthyr Town

Football
Worcester City
Worcester City
1 : 2
Finished
M
Merthyr Town

Worcester City go head-to-head with Merthyr Town on August 2, 2026 in the England: Cup Angliyskoy ligi - Predvaritelnyy raund.

PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 26% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Merthyr Town — 53%

Pure model vs market (2 · Merthyr Town): model 33% · market 20% Δ +13 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Worcester City25.6%
X · draw21.6%
2 · Merthyr Town52.8%

Model estimate: win Worcester City 25.6%, draw 21.6%, win Merthyr Town 52.8%. Model favourite — Merthyr Town.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Worcester City (odds1.32) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs York Siti: probability 50% vs 76% on the line (odds 1.32)
  • • no edge over the line (-26 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Worcester City - Merthyr Town August 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Worcester City.

Line favourite market consensus: Worcester City. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.72 / X 3.89 / 2 4.80
  • Glicko: Worcester City 25.6% / X 21.6% / Merthyr Town 52.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.7%
1 55.5%
X 24.6%
2 19.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Friendlies Clubs
League table
Worcester City
not in table
Merthyr Town
#666 ptsGP 22-0-06:0
Best price across 7 books
1 4.10 Dafabet
X 4.40 Dafabet
2 1.70 Bet365

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Worcester City
W-D-L 1-2-5 Scored 0.59 Conceded 1.11 xG 1.61 xGA 1.13
Merthyr Town
W-D-L 5-3-2 Scored 2.62 Conceded 1.80 xG 1.92 xGA 1.47

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Worcester City
Rating 1401
Merthyr Town
Rating 1674

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 02.08.2026 18:30 UTC
Market 1 55.5% @ 1.72 / X 24.6% @ 3.89 / 2 19.9% @ 4.80
Match center

Worcester City - Merthyr Town

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 52.8% fact: away hit / ROI 69.0% / Brier 0.335 / LogLoss 0.638
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 52.8% fact: away hit / ROI 69.0% / Brier 0.335 / LogLoss 0.638
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Worcester City 24.4% 25.6%
Draw 21.5% 21.6% draw risk
Merthyr Town 54.1% 52.8% market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 25.6% / 21.6% / 52.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 York City / Crawley Town
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.00 market consensus · weak value +217.0% · model 52.8%
X 3.80 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.60 market consensus · no value · model 25.6%
Double chance
12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 78.4%
1X 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 47.2%
X2 2.09 market consensus · weak value +55.5% · model 74.4%
Handicap
2 -1 1.97 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.64 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.65 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.12 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.77 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.98 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.85 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.85 54.1%
yes 1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.27 78.7% 1.23 81.3%
1x 1.18 84.8% 1.15 87.0%
x2 2.10 47.6% 2.07 48.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.82 55.0%
X 2.41 41.5%
7.50 13.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.77 56.5%
Over 1.5 2.36 42.4%
Under 1 1.98 50.5%
Under 1.5 1.48 67.6%