Participant opinions
13 predictions
Choose an outcome
AI verdict
AI pick Independiente
win probability ~42%
confidence Low
best odds 2.21
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Independiente. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
Sign in to unlock the full prediction
Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
✓ Prematch ready
Prematch data
✓Line
✓Form
✓H2H
✓Prediction
12.08.2026 22:15 UTC
Round of 16
Finished
Copa Libertadores.Round of 16. Second leg
Atletico Tucuman - Independiente
4
:
0
Finished
Atletico Tucuman face Independiente on August 12, 2026 in the Copa Libertadores.Round of 16. Second leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Atletico Tucuman 2-2-1, Independiente 3-0-2. Sportsbooks lean towards Independiente, an implied 42% to win. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 26% to win — broadly in line with the market. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Independiente — 42%
Model estimate: win Atletico Tucuman 26.3%, draw 31.8%, win Independiente 41.9%. Model favourite — Independiente.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Xdraw (odds2.90)
Score 1:1
confidence 50%
✗ outcome missed
- • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 34% on the line (odds 2.90)
- • edge over the line +16 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Atletico Tucuman - Independiente August 12, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Independiente.
Strongest: Independiente - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.60 / X 2.89 / 2 2.21
- 1X2 market: Atletico Tucuman 25.9% / X 32.1% / Independiente 42.0%
- Glicko: Atletico Tucuman 26.3% / X 31.8% / Independiente 41.9%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 7.1%
19 books · best price +825.9%
1
25.6%
X
32.2%
2
42.2%
Odds source: consensus of 19 books (10Bet, 1xBet, Baltbet, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Copa ArgentinaLeague table
Atletico Tucuman
Independiente
Best price
across 13 books
1
3.94
1xBet
X
3.00
Unibet
2
2.26
Dafabet
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Atletico Tucuman
W-D-L 6-0-4
Scored 2.13
Conceded 1.16
xG 1.19
xGA 0.90
Independiente
W-D-L 7-1-2
Scored 2.02
Conceded 0.77
xG 1.51
xGA 0.73
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
%
Market consensus
Forecast by market
Match result
Atletico Tucuman
25%
3.90
Draw
32%
8.50
Independiente
43%
20.00
Handicap
Atletico Tucuman (0)
36%
2.65
Independiente (0)
64%
11.50
Total
Over 2
49%
2.06
Under 2
51%
1.88
Both teams to score
Yes
27%
7.00
No
73%
1.63
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Atletico Tucuman
1
:
1
Independiente
13.94
X2.89
22.19
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Match center
Start
12.08.2026 22:15 UTC
Market
1 25.8% @ 3.60 / X 32.1% @ 2.89 / 2 42.0% @ 2.21
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community
Draw 46%
📐 Math model
Independiente 42%
💹 Market
Independiente 42%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
🏦 Virtual bank $10,000
$10,000Virtual balance
Play free: you start with $10,000 in virtual money. Bet on this match at our odds, then track your profit and climb the global leaderboard. No real money, no sign-up.
Match center
Atletico Tucuman - Independiente
Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Atletiko Tukuman - Independente, 13 avgusta 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Cup Argentina 2025, 1/8 finala. Atletiko Tukuman - Independente, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.
Lineups
10/10
probable starting lineup
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
6
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
Post-match / SStats
Score
4:0
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 41.9% fact: home
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.820 / LogLoss 1.335
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 41.9% fact: home
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.820 / LogLoss 1.335
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Atletico Tucuman
25.2%
26.3%
Draw
32.2%
31.8%
draw risk
Independiente
42.6%
41.9%
market and model agree
1X2: 18 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
26.3% / 31.8% / 41.9%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,359 / 1,355
Atletico Tucuman / Independiente
RD
223 / 136
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
914-1,804 / 1,084-1,627
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.20
market consensus · no value · model 41.9%
X
8.50
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.10
Fonbet · no value · model 26.3%
Double chance
12
1.06
Fonbet · no value · model 68.2%
1X
1.11
Fonbet · no value · model 58.1%
X2
5.80
Fonbet · weak value +327.4% · model 73.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.04
market consensus · line only
2 -1
4.70
Fonbet · line only
2 +1
3.70
Fonbet · line only
2 0
1.47
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.37
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
2.85
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.07
Fonbet · line only
Yes
6.50
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.55 28.2% | 3.79 26.4% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.65 27.4% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.50 28.6% | |
| X | 2.92 34.3% | 2.88 34.7% | 2.90 34.5% | 2.82 35.5% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.00 33.3% |
| 2.25 44.4% | 2.23 44.8% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.27 44.1% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.15 46.5% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.07 93.5% | 1.63 61.4% | 1.63 61.4% | 1.61 62.1% |
| yes | 6.50 15.4% | 7.00 14.3% | 7.00 14.3% | 2.22 45.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.35 74.1% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.06 94.3% | 1.49 67.1% | 1.49 67.1% |
| 1x | 1.61 62.1% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.40 71.4% |
| x2 | 1.20 83.3% | 1.23 81.3% | 5.80 17.2% | 1.16 86.2% | 1.16 86.2% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 6.25 16.0% |
| 0_1 | 5.00 20.0% |
| 0_2 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 0_3 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 0_4 | 51.00 2.0% |
| 0_5 | 126.00 0.8% |
| 1_0 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 1_1 | 5.00 20.0% |
| 1_2 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 1_3 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 1_4 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 1_5 | 126.00 0.8% |
| 2_0 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 2_1 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 2_2 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 2_3 | 34.00 2.9% |
| 2_4 | 76.00 1.3% |
| 3_0 | 41.00 2.4% |
Match center
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
1
L. Ingolotti
10
F. Nicola
11
R. Tesuri
21
I. Galván
23
N. Laméndola
24
L. Di Plácido
26
C. Ferreira
30
M. Brondo
31
L. Godoy
36
L. Vallejo
77
Santyago Mele
4
Santyago Arias
7
Santyago Montiel
8
Maksimiliano Meza
9
Gabriel Avalos
13
J. Fedorco
22
Fakundo Zavala
23
Ivan Markone
26
K. Lomónaco
28
M. Gutiérrez
Atletico Tucuman
Formation 4-2-3-1
Probable starting lineup
Head coach
Khulio Sesar Falsoni
Independiente
Formation 4-2-3-1
Probable starting lineup
Head coach
Gustavo Kinteros Statistika matcha
Atletico Tucuman
No home-team absences found in the prematch data.
Independiente
No away-team absences found in the prematch data.
Formations
4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1
SStats
Market - Form - H2H - Table
Match center
Atletico Tucuman
Team form
Independiente
10
Matches
10
9
Goals
12
0.9
Per match
1.2
3
Wins
5
4
Draws
1
3
Losses
4
Form & head-to-head
H2H 3-0-2, avg 2.6 gls
2026-08-12 · Atletiko Tukuman 4:0 Independente
2025-11-01 · Atletiko Tukuman 0:3 Independente
2025-05-01 · Atletiko Tukuman 2:0 Independente
2024-12-10 · Atletiko Tukuman 1:2 Independente
2023-07-23 · Atletiko Tukuman 1:0 Independente
Source: ruscore
Odds · 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 4.2 (Pari) · X 3.05 (Pari) · 2 2.44 (Liga Stavok)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 4.2 | 3.05 | 2 |
| Winline | 2.95 | 2.95 | 2.42 |
| Fonbet | 4.2 | 3.05 | 2 |
| Betcity | 4.2 | 2.9 | 2.08 |
| Liga Stavok | 2.95 | 2.9 | 2.44 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Match stats
34
Ball possession
66
8
Vsego udarov
4
7
Shots on target
1
1
Shots off target
3
5
Udary ot vorot
3
0
Blokirovannye udary
0
11
Shtrafnye
15
6
Corners
10
2
Offsides
2
14
Auty
19
1
Saves
3
13
Fouls
9
1
Cards total
2
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
0
Second yellows
0
0
Travmy
1
5
Substitutions
5
Source: ruscore
Atletico Tucuman
L
D
W
D
W
Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman 1:2 Sarmiento
Atletico Tucuman
Huracan 0:0 Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
Central Cordoba SdE 0:2 Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman 0:0 Independiente Rivadavia
Atletico Tucuman
Talleres Cordoba 0:3 Atletico Tucuman
2
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
1.2
Scored
0.4
Conceded
8
Points
Independiente
L
L
W
W
W
Independiente 0:1 Platense
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield 1:0 Independiente
Independiente
Independiente 1:0 Newell's Old Boys
Independiente
Estudiantes La Plata 0:2 Independiente
Independiente
Union Santa Fe 0:2 Independiente
Independiente
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.0
Scored
0.4
Conceded
9
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAtletico Tucuman - Independiente
Atletico Tucuman
6
matches total
Atletico Tucuman: 4 (66.7%)
Draws:1 (16.7%)
Independiente: 1 (16.6%)
Biggest win
Atletico Tucuman 3:0 (01.11.25, 18:00)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
3 goals (3:0, 01.11.25, 18:00)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
1:1 (31.03.24, 16:30)
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Atletico Tucuman
3:0
Independiente
Atletico Tucuman
2:0
Independiente
Atletico Tucuman
2:1
Independiente
Atletico Tucuman
1:1
Independiente
Atletico Tucuman
1:2
Independiente
Atletico Tucuman
1:0
Independiente
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
Atletico Tucuman
Team 2
Independiente
Atletico Tucuman
Team comparison
Independiente
1
Games
1
1
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
3
Scored
2
0
Conceded
0
3
Points
3
0
Attacks
0
0
Dangerous attacks
0
0
Big chances
0
0
Shots on goal
0
0
Udary v stvor
0
Matches in history
31
Biggest draw
2:2
Highest-scoring match
4:2
Professionalnaya liga
19 / 8 / 3 / 8 / 25 / 26
Cup Professionalnoy ligi
3 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 3
Cup Argentina
2 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 2 / 2
Yuzhnoamerikanskiy Cup
4 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 4
Tovarischeskiy (kluby)
1 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 0
Primera B Nasonal
2 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 5 / 2
Atletiko Tukuman Independente 1 Games 1 Wins 1 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 3 Scored 2 0 Conceded 0 3 Points 3 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 2 Warnings 4 0 Sendoffs 0 Goly Nikolas Lamendola Ignasio Galvan 1:0 31' Manuel Brondo Nikolas Lamendola 2:0 49' Franko Nikola Nikolas Lamendola 3:0 54' Nikolas Lamendola Manuel Brondo 4:0 70' Nezabitye penalti Santiago Gabriel Montiel 30' Nakazaniya Klever Ferreyra 11' Juan Arrayago 76' Kevin Lomonaso 88'
Unlock the full match prediction
The Atletico Tucuman - Independiente breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Tucuman vs Independiente?
By the PropickAI model, Independiente is favoured — about 42% win probability.
What does PropickAI predict for Atletico Tucuman vs Independiente?
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Independiente. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
When does Atletico Tucuman vs Independiente start?
August 12, 2026.