Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Estudiantes La Plata meet Defensa y Justicia on August 1, 2026 in the Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Estudiantes La Plata 2-0-3, Defensa y Justicia 1-1-3. The market favourite is Estudiantes La Plata at roughly 57%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 58% to win — broadly in line with the market. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Estudiantes La Plata — 58%
Pure model vs market (1 · Estudiantes La Plata): model 63% · market 57% Δ +6 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Estudiantes La Plata 57.7%, draw 26.6%, win Defensa y Justicia 15.7%. Model favourite — Estudiantes La Plata.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Estudiantes La Plata.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
football, Estudiantes LP - Defensa i Khustisiya, 2 avgusta 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha. Vo skolko nachalo matcha Estudiantes LP - Defensa i Khustisiya, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Championship Argentina po futbolu (Primera) 2026, Clausura. 3-y Round.
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.63 61.4% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.65 60.6% | |
| X | 3.40 29.4% | 3.58 27.9% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.45 29.0% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.50 28.6% |
| 6.00 16.7% | 5.95 16.8% | 6.25 16.0% | 6.20 16.1% | 6.00 16.7% | 6.00 16.7% |
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.08 92.6% | 1.53 65.4% |
| yes | 6.10 16.4% | 2.41 41.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.28 78.1% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.01 99.0% |
| 1x | 1.09 91.7% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.02 98.0% |
| x2 | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 10.50 9.5% |
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 0_1 | 9.50 10.5% |
| 0_2 | 26.00 3.9% |
| 0_3 | 76.00 1.3% |
| 1_0 | 4.20 23.8% |
| 1_1 | 6.00 16.7% |
| 1_2 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 1_3 | 56.00 1.8% |
| 2_0 | 5.50 18.2% |
| 2_1 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 2_2 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 2_3 | 61.00 1.6% |
| 3_0 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 3_1 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 3_2 | 31.00 3.2% |
| 3_3 | 91.00 1.1% |
| 4_0 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 4_1 | 29.00 3.5% |
Estudiantes La Plata
No home-team absences found in the prematch data.
Defensa y Justicia
No away-team absences found in the prematch data.
Estudiantes La Plata
Defensa y Justicia
Full head-to-head historyEstudiantes La Plata - Defensa y Justicia
Estudiantes LP Defensa and Khustisiya 18 Games 18 9 Wins 5 4 Draws 8 5 Losses 5 19 Scored 21 10 Conceded 23 31 Points 23 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 14 Shots on goal 11.5 3.72 Udary v stvor 3.78 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.11 Uglovye 4.22 1.11 Offsaydy 1.56 10.5 Foly 8.78 52.83 % vladeniya myachom 52.22 2.72 Warnings 1.78 0.11 Sendoffs 0.17 Goly Guido Carrillo Erik Mesa 1:0 10' Ezequiel Piovi Tyago Palasios 2:0 17' Tyago Palasios Guido Carrillo 3:0 36' Nakazaniya Fabricio Perez 28' David Barbona 28' Damian Fernandez 34'
The Estudiantes La Plata - Defensa y Justicia breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
