Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Sarmiento take on Independiente Rivadavia on August 3, 2026 in the Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Sarmiento 1-0-4, Independiente Rivadavia 4-1-0. The market favourite is Independiente Rivadavia at roughly 41%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 27% to win — broadly in line with the market. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Independiente Rivadavia — 42%
Pure model vs market (2 · Independiente Rivadavia): model 55% · market 41% Δ +14 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Sarmiento 27.2%, draw 31.0%, win Independiente Rivadavia 41.8%. Model favourite — Independiente Rivadavia.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Independiente Rivadavia.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 16 books (10Bet, 1xBet, Baltbet, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Atletiko Sarmento - Independente Rivadaviya, 3 avgusta 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Championship Argentina po futbolu (Primera) 2026, Clausura. 3-y Round. Atletiko Sarmento - Independente Rivadaviya, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.40 29.4% | 3.48 28.7% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.40 29.4% | |
| X | 3.05 32.8% | 2.98 33.6% | 2.90 34.5% | 2.92 34.3% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.10 32.3% |
| 2.22 45.1% | 2.32 43.1% | 2.35 42.6% | 2.32 43.1% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.25 44.4% |
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.75 36.4% | 1.69 59.2% |
| yes | 1.40 71.4% | 2.09 47.9% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.37 73.0% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.05 95.2% |
| 1x | 1.58 63.3% | 1.58 63.3% | 1.01 99.0% |
| x2 | 1.25 80.0% | 1.29 77.5% | 9.00 11.1% |
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 0_1 | 5.00 20.0% |
| 0_2 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 0_3 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 0_4 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 0_5 | 126.00 0.8% |
| 1_0 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 1_1 | 5.25 19.1% |
| 1_2 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 1_3 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 1_4 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 1_5 | 126.00 0.8% |
| 2_0 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 2_1 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 2_2 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 2_3 | 31.00 3.2% |
| 2_4 | 71.00 1.4% |
| 3_0 | 34.00 2.9% |
Independiente Rivadavia
Full head-to-head historySarmiento - Independiente Rivadavia
Atletiko Sarmento Independente Rivadaviya 18 Games 19 6 Wins 11 1 Draws 5 11 Losses 3 17 Scored 32 26 Conceded 18 19 Points 38 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 9 Shots on goal 14.67 3.39 Udary v stvor 4.47 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.67 Uglovye 4.05 1.61 Offsaydy 2.11 12.83 Foly 10.74 49.39 % vladeniya myachom 45.42 3.17 Warnings 1.95 0.22 Sendoffs 0 Goly Maurisio Martines 1:0 12' Matias Fernandez 1 31' Julian Mavilla 2:1 37' Nezabitye penalti Matias Fernandez 31' Nakazaniya Maurisio Martines 41' Ivan Villalba 90+3'
The Sarmiento - Independiente Rivadavia breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
