Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
San Martin Burzaco - Deportivo Merlo
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 San Martin Burzaco — 56%
Model estimate: win San Martin Burzaco 56.1%, draw 20.9%, win Deportivo Merlo 23.1%. Model favourite — San Martin Burzaco.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
- • Model backs San-Martin Bursako: probability 56% vs 56% on the line (odds 1.78)
- • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 2:1
- • Total: Over 2.5: model expects a total of ~3 goals
- • at line 2.5 (odds 2.75)
- • Handicap F1 +1.5: score forecast 2:1 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 1.25).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction San Martin Burzaco - Deportivo Merlo July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
- Glicko: San Martin Burzaco 56.1% / X 20.9% / Deportivo Merlo 23.1%
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San Martin Burzaco - Deportivo Merlo
What data is collected and where it is shown
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Handicap
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 1.25 80.0% | |
| 3.50 28.6% |
Total
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 7.20 13.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.75 36.4% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.06 94.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.40 71.4% |
San Martin Burzaco
Deportivo Camioneros
Sportivo Italyano
Itusaingo
Liniers
Villa Dalmine
Deportivo Merlo
Vilya San-Karlos
Liniers
Real Pilar
UAI Urkisa
Villa Dalmine
Full head-to-head historySan Martin Burzaco - Deportivo Merlo
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The San Martin Burzaco - Deportivo Merlo breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form