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Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
31.07.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
31.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana

Villa Dalmine - Eston Villa

Football
Villa Dalmine
Villa Dalmine
6 : 3
Finished
Eston Villa
Eston Villa
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Villa Dalmine — 54%

Pure model vs market (1 · Villa Dalmine): model 49% · market 43% Δ +6 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Villa Dalmine54.1%
X · draw21.7%
2 · Eston Villa24.2%

Model estimate: win Villa Dalmine 54.1%, draw 21.7%, win Eston Villa 24.2%. Model favourite — Villa Dalmine.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Villa Dalmine (odds2.12) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct
  • • liniya na pik P1 1.05→1.01 (ukorotilas — dengi na pik)
  • • Model backs Villa Dalmine: probability 50% vs 47% on the line (odds 2.12)
  • • edge over the line +3 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Villa Dalmine - Eston Villa July 31, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Villa Dalmine.

Line favourite market consensus: Villa Dalmine. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.27 / X 2.90 / 2 3.99
  • Glicko: Villa Dalmine 54.1% / X 21.7% / Eston Villa 24.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.6%
1 42.5%
X 33.3%
2 24.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.05 ↓ 1.01

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 31.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Match center

Villa Dalmine - Eston Villa

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 1 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 6:3
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 54.1% fact: home hit / ROI 1.0% / Brier 0.316 / LogLoss 0.614
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 54.1% fact: home hit / ROI 1.0% / Brier 0.316 / LogLoss 0.614
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Villa Dalmine 100.0% 54.1% market and model agree
Draw - 21.7% draw risk
Eston Villa - 24.2%
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 54.1% / 21.7% / 24.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,674 / 1,475 Villa Dalmine / Eston Villa
RD 163 / 150 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,347-2,000 / 1,175-1,776 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.75 market consensus · no value · model 24.2%
X 2.85 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.13 market consensus · value +15.2% · model 54.1%
Double chance
12 1.38 market consensus · value +8.1% · model 78.3%
1X 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 75.8%
X2 1.56 market consensus · no value · model 45.9%
Handicap
2 0 2.62 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.45 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.54 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.32 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.54 64.9%
yes 2.32 43.1%

Double chance

Outcome Betcity
12 1.38 72.5%
1x 1.26 79.4%
x2 1.56 64.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.70 37.0%
X 1.81 55.3%
5.30 18.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.61 62.1%
Under 0.5 2.19 45.7%
Match center
Villa Dalmine
D D D W W
25.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Villa Dalmine 0:0 Arkhentino de KilmesArkhentino de Kilmes
18.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Villa Dalmine 0:0 Defensores YunidosDefensores Yunidos
14.07 20:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Villa Dalmine 0:0 KomunikasonesKomunikasones
10.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Villa Dalmine 2:1 Dokk SudDokk Sud
04.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Villa Dalmine 2:1 Deportivo MerloDeportivo Merlo
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
0.8 Scored
0.4 Conceded
9 Points
Eston Villa
D L W D L
25.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Eston Villa 1:1 EkskursionistasEkskursionistas
18.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Eston Villa 0:1 Arsenal SarandiArsenal Sarandi
14.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Eston Villa 1:0 Arkhentino de MerloArkhentino de Merlo
10.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Eston Villa 1:1 Taleres EskaladaTaleres Eskalada
04.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera B Standings
Eston Villa 1:2 LaferrereLaferrere
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
5 Points