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Argentina. Primera C Metropolitana
Argentina. Primera C Metropolitana
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
05.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Finished

Argentina. Primera C Metropolitana

Deportivo Paraguayo - Central Ballester

Football
Deportivo Paraguayo
Deportivo Paraguayo
0 : 1
Finished
Central Ballester
Central Ballester

Deportivo Paraguayo take on Central Ballester on August 5, 2026 in the Argentina. Primera C Metropolitana.

Recent form (W-D-L): Deportivo Paraguayo 1-2-1, Central Ballester 2-0-3. The bookmaker line makes draw the favourite at about 33%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 33% to win — broadly in line with the market. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Central Ballester33%

Pure model vs market (2 · Central Ballester): model 30% · market 34% Δ −4 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Deportivo Paraguayo33.0%
X · draw33.7%
2 · Central Ballester33.3%

Model estimate: win Deportivo Paraguayo 33.0%, draw 33.7%, win Central Ballester 33.3%. Model favourite — Central Ballester.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds2.74) Score 1:1 (odds5.35) confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 36% on the line (odds 2.74)
  • edge over the line +14 pp — value pick
  • Expected score 1 (odds 5.35).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Deportivo Paraguayo - Central Ballester August 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.

Line favourite market consensus: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.77 / X 2.61 / 2 2.68
  • 1X2 market: Deportivo Paraguayo 32.4% / X 34.3% / Central Ballester 33.4%
  • Glicko: Deportivo Paraguayo 33.0% / X 33.7% / Central Ballester 33.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 11.2% 15 books · best price +6.9%
1 32.4%
X 34.1%
2 33.5%

Odds source: consensus of 15 books (10Bet, 1xBet, Baltbet, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera C
League table
Deportivo Paraguayo
#2719 ptsGP 214-7-1012:27
Central Ballester
#2222 ptsGP 206-4-1019:24
Best price across 10 books
1 2.80 Dafabet
X 2.80 Dafabet
2 2.80 Dafabet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Deportivo Paraguayo
W-D-L 1-4-5 Scored 0.20 Conceded 0.80 xG 0.73 xGA 1.25
Central Ballester
W-D-L 2-3-5 Scored 0.70 Conceded 1.30 xG 0.76 xGA 1.18

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Deportivo Paraguayo
Rating 1388 xG 1.00 Win 32%
Central Ballester
Rating 1430 xG 1.12 Win 38%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Deportivo Paraguayo 0 : 0 Central Ballester
12.70
X2.71
22.68

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 05.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Market 1 32.3% @ 2.77 / X 34.3% @ 2.61 / 2 33.4% @ 2.68
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Draw 34%
💹 Market Draw 3425%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Deportivo Paraguayo - Central Ballester

Form 4/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit the draw is not published yet: the draw model is being refined Data: line, form, table draw - 33.7% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.667 / LogLoss 1.100
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit the draw is not published yet: the draw model is being refined Data: line, form, table draw - 33.7% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.667 / LogLoss 1.100
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Deportivo Paraguayo 32.4% 33.0%
Draw 34.1% 33.7% draw risk
Central Ballester 33.5% 33.3% market and model agree
xG - 1.00 : 1.12
1X2: 15 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 33.0% / 33.7% / 33.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,479 / 1,429 Deportivo Paraguayo / Turan Turkistan 2
RD 179 / 180 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,121-1,838 / 1,070-1,788 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.68 market consensus · no value · model 33.3%
X 2.63 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.77 market consensus · no value · model 33.0%
Double chance
12 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 66.3%
1X 1.38 market consensus · no value · model 66.7%
X2 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 67.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.63 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.41 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.14 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 2.71 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 3.08 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.30 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.44 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.61 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
2.70 37.0% 2.85 35.1% 2.70 37.0% 2.77 36.1% 2.80 35.7% 2.60 38.5%
X 2.75 36.4% 2.62 38.2% 2.70 37.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.70 37.0% 2.45 40.8%
2.70 37.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.70 37.0% 2.72 36.8% 2.60 38.5% 2.45 40.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.44 69.4%
yes 2.61 38.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.32 75.8% 1.38 72.5%
1x 1.35 74.1% 1.41 70.9%
x2 1.31 76.3% 1.37 73.0%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 5.00 20.0%
0_1 4.75 21.1%
0_2 9.50 10.5%
0_3 26.00 3.9%
0_4 76.00 1.3%
1_0 4.75 21.1%
1_1 5.00 20.0%
1_2 10.00 10.0%
1_3 29.00 3.5%
1_4 76.00 1.3%
2_0 9.50 10.5%
2_1 10.00 10.0%
2_2 19.00 5.3%
2_3 51.00 2.0%
2_4 101.00 1.0%
3_0 26.00 3.9%
3_1 29.00 3.5%
3_2 51.00 2.0%
Match center
Deportivo Paraguayo
W L D D
31.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
Deportivo Paraguayo 2:1 Arkhentino de RosarioArkhentino de Rosario
25.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
Deportivo Paraguayo 0:1 Estrella Del SurEstrella Del Sur
05.07 14:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
Deportivo Paraguayo 0:0 Viktoriano ArenasViktoriano Arenas
13.06 16:30 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
Deportivo Paraguayo 0:0 Khusto Khose de UrkisaKhusto Khose de Urkisa
1 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
0.5 Scored
0.5 Conceded
5 Points
Central Ballester
L W W L L
26.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
Central Ballester 1:3 Klub LukhanKlub Lukhan
12.07 14:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
Central Ballester 3:0 Kheneral LamadridKheneral Lamadrid
04.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
Central Ballester 1:0 Leones de RosarioLeones de Rosario
30.06 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
Central Ballester 0:2 AtlasAtlas
14.06 16:30 UTC Argentina: Primera C Standings
Central Ballester 0:1 KanuelasKanuelas
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
6 Points