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Start
27.07.2026 16:00 UTC
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27.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished
Kazakhstan. League 2
Fenix Pilar - Yupanqui
1
:
1
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Fenix Pilar — 34%
Pure model vs market (1 · Fenix Pilar): model 49% · market 11% Δ +38 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Fenix Pilar 34.3%, draw 32.7%, win Yupanqui 33.0%. Model favourite — Fenix Pilar.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Fenix Pilar (odds3.50)
Score 2:1
confidence 51%
✗ outcome missed
- • Model backs Feniks: probability 51% vs 29% on the line (odds 3.50)
- • edge over the line +23 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Fenix Pilar - Yupanqui July 27, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.
Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 8.50 / X 1.13 / 2 11.00
- Glicko: Fenix Pilar 34.3% / X 32.7% / Yupanqui 33.0%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.4%
1
10.8%
X
80.9%
2
8.3%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Primera CLeague table
Fenix Pilar
WWLWL
Yupanqui
DLWLL
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Fenix Pilar
1
:
1
Yupanqui
12.83
X2.67
22.61
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Fenix Pilar - Yupanqui
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 34.3% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.679 / LogLoss 1.118
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 34.3% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.679 / LogLoss 1.118
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Fenix Pilar
33.4%
34.3%
market and model agree
Draw
33.2%
32.7%
draw risk
Yupanqui
33.4%
33.0%
1X2: 3 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
34.3% / 32.7% / 33.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,619 / 1,464
Fenix Pilar / Yupanqui
RD
122 / 190
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,374-1,863 / 1,084-1,844
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.73
market consensus · no value · model 33.0%
X
1.13
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
8.50
Fonbet · no value · model 34.3%
Double chance
12
4.80
Fonbet · weak value +223.0% · model 67.3%
1X
1.03
Fonbet · no value · model 67.0%
X2
1.05
Fonbet · no value · model 65.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.56
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
1.45
market consensus · line only
2 0
2.20
Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5
2.56
market consensus · line only
Total
Under 2.5
1.01
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.43
Fonbet · line only
Yes
2.60
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.43 69.9% | 1.61 62.1% |
| yes | 2.60 38.5% | 2.19 45.7% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.30 76.9% | 1.38 72.5% | 4.80 20.8% |
| 1x | 1.36 73.5% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.03 97.1% |
| x2 | 1.32 75.8% | 1.41 70.9% | 1.05 95.2% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.39 29.5% | |
| X | 1.90 52.6% |
| 3.59 27.9% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.57 63.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 3.87 25.8% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.17 46.1% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.19 84.0% |
Match center
Form & head-to-head
H2H 1-2-1, avg 2.25 gls
2025-08-26 · La Luz 2:0 Klub Atletiko Rentistas
2025-06-04 · La Luz 2:3 Klub Atletiko Rentistas
2024-10-11 · La Luz 0:0 Klub Atletiko Rentistas
2024-07-05 · La Luz 1:1 Klub Atletiko Rentistas
Source: ruscore
Fenix Pilar
W
W
L
W
D
Fenix Pilar
1:0
Puerto-Nuevo
Puerto-Nuevo
Fenix Pilar
2:1
Sportivo Barrakas
Sportivo Barrakas
Fenix Pilar
1:2
Klub Lukhan
Klub Lukhan
Fenix Pilar
3:1
Kheneral Lamadrid
Kheneral Lamadrid
Fenix Pilar
1:1
Atlas
Atlas
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.6
Scored
1.0
Conceded
10
Points
Yupanqui
D
L
W
W
L
Yupanqui
1:1
Arkhentino de Rosario
Arkhentino de Rosario
Yupanqui
0:1
Deportivo Munis
Deportivo Munis
Yupanqui
3:2
Sportivo Barrakas
Sportivo Barrakas
Yupanqui
2:1
Sentral Kordoba
Sentral Kordoba
Yupanqui
2:4
Kheneral Lamadrid
Kheneral Lamadrid
2
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
1.6
Scored
1.8
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyFenix Pilar - Yupanqui
Fenix Pilar
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Fenix Pilar - Yupanqui breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form