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Argentina. Primera Nacional
Argentina. Primera Nacional
01.08.2026 18:00 UTC Match prediction
01.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Finished

Argentina. Primera Nacional

Acassuso - Colon Santa Fe

Football
Acassuso
Acassuso
1 : 0
Finished
Colon Santa Fe
Colon Santa Fe
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Colon Santa Fe — 45%

Pure model vs market (2 · Colon Santa Fe): model 35% · market 46% Δ −11 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Acassuso23.5%
X · draw31.1%
2 · Colon Santa Fe45.3%

Model estimate: win Acassuso 23.5%, draw 31.1%, win Colon Santa Fe 45.3%. Model favourite — Colon Santa Fe.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Acassuso (odds3.98) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct · exact score
  • • liniya na pik P1 2.30→1.01 (ukorotilas — dengi na pik)
  • • Model backs Akasuso: probability 50% vs 25% on the line (odds 3.98)
  • • edge over the line +25 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Acassuso - Colon Santa Fe August 1, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Colon Santa Fe.

Line favourite market consensus: Colon Santa Fe. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.20 / X 3.00 / 2 2.05
  • Glicko: Acassuso 23.5% / X 31.1% / Colon Santa Fe 45.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%
1 22.5%
X 31.5%
2 46.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 2.30 ↓ 1.01
1X2 X 2.20 ↓ 1.45
1X2 2 4.80 ↑ 7.60

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera Nacional
League table
Acassuso
#3320 ptsGP 215-5-1115:23
ARRAY
Colon Santa Fe
#735 ptsGP 229-8-527:18
ARRAY
Best price across 12 books
1 4.23 Pinnacle
X 3.10 Unibet
2 2.05 William Hill

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Acassuso
W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 0.70 Conceded 1.00 xG 0.72 xGA 1.28
Colon Santa Fe
W-D-L 3-4-3 Scored 1.20 Conceded 0.80 xG 1.14 xGA 0.83

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Acassuso
Rating 1422 xG 0.89 Win 25%
Colon Santa Fe
Rating 1536 xG 1.33 Win 47%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Market 1 22.5% @ 4.20 / X 31.5% @ 3.00 / 2 46.1% @ 2.05
Match center

Acassuso - Colon Santa Fe

Form 5/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 45.3% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.887 / LogLoss 1.446
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 45.3% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.887 / LogLoss 1.446
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Acassuso 22.5% 23.5%
Draw 31.5% 31.1% draw risk
Colon Santa Fe 46.0% 45.3% market and model agree
xG - 0.88 : 1.34
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 23.5% / 31.1% / 45.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,417 / 1,481 Akasuso / Kolon Santa Fe
RD 187 / 300 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,043-1,791 / 881-2,080 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.03 market consensus · no value · model 45.3%
X 2.97 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.07 market consensus · no value · model 23.5%
Double chance
12 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 68.9%
1X 1.69 market consensus · no value · model 54.7%
X2 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 76.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.01 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.40 market consensus · line only
1 +0.5 1.72 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.75 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.61 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.28 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.61 62.1%
yes 2.28 43.9%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.34 74.6% 1.34 74.6%
1x 1.68 59.5% 1.69 59.2%
x2 1.18 84.8% 1.21 82.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
4.98 20.1%
X 1.94 51.6%
2.75 36.4%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.55 64.5%
Under 0.5 2.31 43.3%
Match center
Acassuso
D L D L W
27.07 16:30 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Acassuso 0:0 San-MigelSan-Migel
12.07 17:00 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Acassuso 2:3 Rasing KordovaRasing Kordova
05.07 16:30 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Acassuso 1:1 Chako For EverChako For Ever
14.06 16:30 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Acassuso 1:2 FerroFerro
06.06 16:30 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Acassuso 2:1 Tsentral NorteTsentral Norte
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
5 Points
Colon Santa Fe
L L W W
26.07 16:30 UTC+0 Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Colon Santa Fe 0:1 Chako For EverChako For Ever
17.07 20:30 UTC+0 Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Colon Santa Fe 0:2 FerroFerro
05.07 16:00 UTC+0 Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Colon Santa Fe 2:1 Deportivo MadrinDeportivo Madrin
13.06 16:30 UTC+0 Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Colon Santa Fe 3:0 Defensores de BelgranoDefensores de Belgrano
2 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.3 Scored
1.0 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAcassuso - Colon Santa Fe

Acassuso
0 matches total
Colon Santa Fe
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history