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Argentina. Primera Nacional
Argentina. Primera Nacional
27.07.2026 21:00 UTC Match prediction
27.07.2026 21:00 UTC
Finished

Argentina. Primera Nacional

Atlanta - Almagro

Football
Atlanta
Atlanta
1 : 3
Finished
Almagro
Almagro
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Atlanta — 57%

Pure model vs market (1 · Atlanta): model 46% · market 57% Δ −11 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Atlanta56.9%
X · draw27.3%
2 · Almagro15.8%

Model estimate: win Atlanta 56.9%, draw 27.3%, win Almagro 15.8%. Model favourite — Atlanta.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Atlanta (odds1.62) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Atletiko Atlanta: probability 50% vs 62% on the line (odds 1.62)
  • • no edge over the line (-12 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atlanta - Almagro July 27, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atlanta.

Strongest: Atlanta - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.60 / X 3.33 / 2 6.06
  • 1X2 market: Atlanta 57.2% / X 27.6% / Almagro 15.2%
  • Glicko: Atlanta 56.9% / X 27.3% / Almagro 15.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.0%
1 57.3%
X 27.5%
2 15.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.60 ↑ 27.00
1X2 X 3.30 ↑ 10.00
1X2 2 6.40 ↓ 1.01

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera Nacional
League table
Atlanta
#336 ptsGP 2011-3-625:15
WLLWW
Almagro
#1325 ptsGP 207-4-916:22
LWWWD
Best price across 12 books
1 1.65 Betano
X 3.59 Pinnacle
2 6.70 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Atlanta
W-D-L 6-2-2 Scored 1.40 Conceded 0.70 xG 1.05 xGA 0.84
Almagro
W-D-L 5-2-3 Scored 1.10 Conceded 0.90 xG 0.80 xGA 1.13

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Atlanta
Rating 1584
Almagro
Rating 1487

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Atlanta 1 : 1 Almagro
11.57
X3.36
26.05

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:5/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT

Google AI updated27.07.2026 21:57 UTC
1 51% ✓ favourite
X 34%
2 15%
Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.0 BTTS:No Bet:Total menshe 2.0 golov
Per AI data H2H: 0-2
Claude updated27.07.2026 22:10 UTC
1 56% ✓ favourite
X 27%
2 17%
Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Under 2.5 gola (strakhovka — double chance 1X)
Per AI data H2H: 2-2-1
Qwen updated27.07.2026 22:06 UTC
1 78% ✓ favourite
X 15%
2 7%
Score2:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Win DAC Dunayska Streda
Per AI data H2H: 0-0
Kimi updated27.07.2026 22:11 UTC
1 59% ✓ favourite
X 27%
2 15%
Score... Total goals: ... BTTS:... Bet:...
Per AI data Form:... / ... H2H: ... Injuries:...
GLM 5.2 updated27.07.2026 22:12 UTC
1 58% ✓ favourite
X 27%
2 15%
Score2:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1X
Per AI data H2H: 2-3-1

AI consensus:1

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 51% 34% 15% 1:0 Under 2.0 No Total menshe 2.0 golov
Claude 56% 27% 17% 1:0 Under 2.5 No Under 2.5 gola (strakhovka — double chance 1X)
Qwen 78% 15% 7% 2:0 Under 2.5 No Win DAC Dunayska Streda
Kimi 59% 27% 15% ... ... ... ...
GLM 5.2 58% 27% 15% 2:0 Under 2.5 No 1X

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Match center
Start 27.07.2026 21:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Atlanta 60%
📐 Math model Atlanta 57%
💹 Market Atlanta 5723%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Atlanta - Almagro

Form 3/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:3
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 56.9% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.106 / LogLoss 1.843
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 56.9% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.106 / LogLoss 1.843
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Atlanta 57.5% 56.9% market and model agree
Draw 27.4% 27.3% draw risk
Almagro 15.1% 15.8%
1X2: 16 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 56.9% / 27.3% / 15.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,502 / 1,400 Atlanta / Almagro
RD 207 / 206 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,089-1,916 / 987-1,813 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 15.8%
X 10.00 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.60 market consensus · no value · model 56.9%
Double chance
12 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 72.7%
1X 9.00 Fonbet · weak value +657.5% · model 84.2%
X2 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 43.1%
Handicap
2 -1 1.15 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.07 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 4.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.19 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 4.00 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.72 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.60 62.5% 1.58 63.3% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5%
X 3.20 31.3% 3.35 29.9% 3.40 29.4% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4%
6.00 16.7% 5.95 16.8% 6.50 15.4% 6.20 16.1% 6.00 16.7% 6.50 15.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.72 58.1% 1.47 68.0%
yes 2.00 50.0% 2.65 37.7%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.02 98.0%
1x 1.07 93.5% 1.11 90.1% 9.00 11.1%
x2 2.17 46.1% 2.20 45.5% 1.06 94.3%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 6.00 16.7%
0_1 9.50 10.5%
0_2 26.00 3.9%
0_3 81.00 1.2%
1_0 4.00 25.0%
1_1 6.00 16.7%
1_2 17.00 5.9%
1_3 61.00 1.6%
2_0 5.25 19.1%
2_1 7.50 13.3%
2_2 21.00 4.8%
2_3 67.00 1.5%
3_0 10.00 10.0%
3_1 13.00 7.7%
3_2 34.00 2.9%
3_3 101.00 1.0%
4_0 23.00 4.4%
4_1 31.00 3.2%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-2-2, avg 1.67 gls
2026-07-27 · Atletiko Atlanta 1:3 Almagro
2026-06-20 · Atletiko Atlanta 0:2 Almagro
2025-08-17 · Atletiko Atlanta 0:0 Almagro
2025-04-15 · Atletiko Atlanta 1:0 Almagro
2024-09-07 · Atletiko Atlanta 0:0 Almagro
Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.67 (Liga Stavok) · X 3.5 (Betcity) · 2 6.3 (Betcity)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 1.6 3.25 5.8
Winline 1.65 3.25 5.4
Fonbet 1.6 3.25 5.8
Betcity 1.57 3.5 6.3
Liga Stavok 1.67 3.25 5.4
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Atlanta
D W L
18.07 21:00 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Atlanta 1:1 PatronatoPatronato
13.07 22:00 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Atlanta 1:0 KolekhialesKolekhiales
04.07 19:00 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Atlanta 1:2 Kilmes
1 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
4 Points
Almagro
L W W
12.07 19:00 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Almagro 0:3 San-Martin TukumanSan-Martin Tukuman
13.06 16:30 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Almagro 2:1 AgropekuarioAgropekuario
31.05 16:30 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings
Almagro 2:0 Klub A. GermesKlub A. Germes
2 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.3 Scored
1.3 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtlanta - Almagro

Atlanta
0 matches total
Almagro
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history