Defensores Belgrano - Independiente de la Chorrera (r)
Football
Defensores Belgrano
1:3
Finished
Independiente de la Chorrera (r)
Defensores Belgrano meet Independiente de la Chorrera (r) on August 1, 2026 in the Argentina. Primera Nacional.
Recent form (W-D-L): Defensores Belgrano 0-1-2, Independiente de la Chorrera (r) 2-2-1. The market favourite is Defensores Belgrano at roughly 38%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 37% to win — broadly in line with the market. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1Defensores Belgrano — 37%
Pure model vs market (1 · Defensores Belgrano): model 29% · market 38%Δ −9 ppmodel estimates below the market
37%1
1 · Defensores Belgrano37.3%
X · draw34.0%
2 · Independiente de la Chorrera (r)28.7%
Model estimate: win Defensores Belgrano 37.3%, draw 34.0%, win Independiente de la Chorrera (r) 28.7%. Model favourite — Defensores Belgrano.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1X2 market: Defensores Belgrano 37.7% / X 34.6% / Independiente de la Chorrera (r) 27.8%
Glicko: Defensores Belgrano 37.3% / X 34.0% / Independiente de la Chorrera (r) 28.7%
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.8%
137.7%
X34.6%
227.8%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 14.50↑ 25.00
1X2 X3.25↑ 9.50
1X2 21.78↓ 1.05
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
⚽
SStats data
Statistics and model
Primera Nacional
League table
Defensores Belgrano
#2624 ptsGP 215-9-714:18
Independiente de la Chorrera (r)
#1331 ptsGP 228-7-719:18
Best price
across 13 books
12.50William Hill
X2.85Unibet
23.59Pinnacle
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Defensores Belgrano
Rating 1468xG 1.11Win 39%
Independiente de la Chorrera (r)
Rating 1524xG 0.94Win 30%
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
🧮
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Defensores Belgrano0:0Independiente de la Chorrera (r)
12.37
X2.59
23.43
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
OptionSignalPrediction / actualRating
Glicko-2: base favouriteAudit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 37.3% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.764 / LogLoss 1.250
Glicko-2: calibrated favouriteAudit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 37.3% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.764 / LogLoss 1.250
Market and Glicko
Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Defensores Belgrano37.8%37.3%market and model agree
Draw34.6%34.0%draw risk
Independiente de la Chorrera (r)27.5%28.7%
xG-1.11 : 0.94
1X2: 16 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P237.3% / 34.0% / 28.7%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,279 / 1,605
Defensores Belgrano / Independiente de la Chorrera (r)
RD228 / 181
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD822-1,736 / 1,243-1,966
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
23.33
market consensus · no value · model 28.7%
X1.04
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
12.44
market consensus · no value · model 37.3%
Double chance
127.20
Fonbet · weak value +375.0% · model 66.0%
1X1.02
Fonbet · no value · model 71.3%
X21.01
Fonbet · no value · model 62.7%
Handicap
2 -0.52.34
market consensus · line only
2 -11.90
Fonbet · line only
2 +0.51.45
market consensus · line only
2 02.55
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.58.50
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.51.03
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No1.12
Fonbet · line only
Yes5.00
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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