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Argentina. Primera Nacional

31.07.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction

31.07.2026 16:00 UTC

Finished

Argentina. Primera Nacional

Defensores de Belgrano - Independiente de la Chorrera (r)

Football

Defensores de Belgrano

1 : 3

Finished

Independiente de la Chorrera (r)

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Defensores de Belgrano — 51%

Pure model vs market (1 · Defensores de Belgrano): model 29% · market 32% Δ −3 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Defensores de Belgrano50.7%

X · draw26.7%

2 · Independiente de la Chorrera (r)22.7%

Model estimate: win Defensores de Belgrano 50.7%, draw 26.7%, win Independiente de la Chorrera (r) 22.7%. Model favourite — Defensores de Belgrano.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.63) Score 1:1 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed

• Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 28% on the line (odds 3.63)
• edge over the line +22 pp — value pick
• Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Defensores de Belgrano - Independiente de la Chorrera (r) July 31, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.

Line favourite market consensus: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.21 / X 2.80 / 2 3.20
Glicko: Defensores de Belgrano 50.7% / X 26.7% / Independiente de la Chorrera (r) 22.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin -1.9%

1 31.8%

X 36.4%

2 31.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 1 4.50 ↑ 25.00

1X2 X 3.25 ↑ 9.50

1X2 2 1.78 ↓ 1.05

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 31.07.2026 16:00 UTC

Match center

Defensores de Belgrano - Independiente de la Chorrera (r)

Form 3/5 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants Line Movement

More needed

H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Overview championat, soccer365

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:3

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 50.7% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.926 / LogLoss 1.484

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 50.7% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.926 / LogLoss 1.484

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Defensores de Belgrano 52.0% 50.7% market and model agree

Draw 26.8% 26.7% draw risk

Independiente de la Chorrera (r) 21.2% 22.7%

1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 50.7% / 26.7% / 22.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,279 / 1,605 Defensores de Belgrano / Independiente de la Chorrera (r)

RD 228 / 181 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 822-1,735 / 1,243-1,966 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.81 market consensus · no value · model 22.7%

X 2.73 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.29 market consensus · value +16.0% · model 50.7%

Double chance

12 1.42 market consensus · weak value +4.2% · model 73.3%

1X 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 77.3%

X2 3.48 market consensus · weak value +71.6% · model 49.3%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.34 market consensus · line only

2 0 2.08 market consensus · line only

1 +0.5 1.53 market consensus · line only

1 0 1.67 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.99 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.71 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.48 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.47 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Leon
no	1.48 67.6%
yes	2.47 40.5%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity
12	—	1.42 70.4%
1x	1.04 96.2%	1.30 76.9%
x2	5.50 18.2%	1.45 69.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	4.05 24.7%
X	1.82 55.0%
	3.29 30.4%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 0.5	1.70 58.8%
Over 1	1.95 51.3%
Under 0.5	2.04 49.0%
Under 1	1.76 56.8%

Match center

Defensores de Belgrano

D L L

26.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings

Defensores de Belgrano 0:0 Oll Boys

12.07 17:30 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings

Defensores de Belgrano 0:1 Godoy Krus

13.06 16:30 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings

Defensores de Belgrano 0:3 Kolon Santa Fe

0 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

0.0 Scored

1.3 Conceded

1 Points

Independiente de la Chorrera (r)

L D W D W

25.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings

Independiente de la Chorrera (r) 1:2 Syudad Bolivar

17.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings

Independiente de la Chorrera (r) 0:0 Almirante Braun

11.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings

Independiente de la Chorrera (r) 3:0 Klub Atletiko Mitre

05.07 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings

Independiente de la Chorrera (r) 1:1 Rasing Kordova

14.06 16:00 UTC Argentina: Primera Nasonal Standings

Independiente de la Chorrera (r) 2:1 Oll Boys

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.4 Scored

0.8 Conceded

8 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyDefensores de Belgrano - Independiente de la Chorrera (r)

Defensores de Belgrano

0 matches total

Independiente de la Chorrera (r)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Defensores de Belgrano - Independiente de la Chorrera (r)

AI match prediction Defensores de Belgrano - Independiente de la Chorrera (r) July 31, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Buy the full AI analysis

Defensores de Belgrano - Independiente de la Chorrera (r)

What data is collected and where it is shown

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Match history