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Armenia. Premier League
Armenia. Premier League
31.07.2026 10:00 UTC Match prediction
31.07.2026 10:00 UTC
Finished

Armenia. Premier League

Van - Sardarapat

Football
V
Van
0 : 0
Finished
S
Sardarapat
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Van — 47%

Pure model vs market (1 · Van): model 44% · market 29% Δ +15 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Van47.0%
X · draw26.8%
2 · Sardarapat26.2%

Model estimate: win Van 47.0%, draw 26.8%, win Sardarapat 26.2%. Model favourite — Van.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Van (odds1.94) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Van: probability 50% vs 52% on the line (odds 1.94)
  • • no edge over the line (-2 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Van - Sardarapat July 31, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sardarapat.

Line favourite Fonbet: Sardarapat. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.95 / X 3.40 / 2 1.01
  • Glicko: Van 47.0% / X 26.8% / Sardarapat 26.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 79.7%
1 28.5%
X 16.4%
2 55.1%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Premier League
Best price across 9 books
1 2.01 Dafabet
X 3.40 Bet365
2 3.50 William Hill

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Van 1 : 3 Sardarapat
11.94
X3.30
23.53

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions
37 predictions Choose an outcome
1 84% 11
X 15% 2
2 0% 0
Double chance X2 1.74 (1)
Total TM 2.5 1.82 (5) - TB 2.5 1.87 (2) - TM 1 8.40 (1)
Both teams to score BTTS yes 1.71 (4)
total_t2_under total_t2_over:1 1.95 (1) - total_t1_over:1_5 1.99 (1)
Match center
Start 31.07.2026 10:00 UTC
Market 1 28.5% @ 1.95 / X 16.4% @ 3.40 / 2 55.1% @ 1.01
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Van 84%
📐 Math model Van 47%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Van - Sardarapat

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions Stavka.tv 13 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 47.0% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.825 / LogLoss 1.316
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 47.0% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.825 / LogLoss 1.316
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Van 47.2% 47.0% market and model agree
Draw 27.1% 26.8% draw risk
Sardarapat 25.7% 26.2%
1X2: 2 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 47.0% / 26.8% / 26.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Van / Sardarapat
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 26.2%
X 3.38 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.94 market consensus · no value · model 47.0%
Double chance
12 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 73.2%
1X 5.50 Fonbet · weak value +306.1% · model 73.8%
X2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 53.0%
Handicap
2 -1 1.14 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 1.16 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 4.70 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.43 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.60 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.27 Fonbet · line only
Yes 3.25 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.27 78.7% 1.99 50.3%
yes 3.25 30.8% 1.73 57.8%

Double chance

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
12 1.27 78.7% 1.05 95.2%
1x 1.24 80.7% 5.50 18.2%
x2 1.76 56.8% 1.01 99.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.56 39.1%
X 2.06 48.5%
4.26 23.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.85 54.1%
Under 1 1.85 54.1%
Match center

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.98 (Winline) · X 3.4 (Pari) · 2 3.6 (Betcity)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 1.93 3.4 3.35
Winline 1.98 3.3 3.4
Fonbet 1.93 3.4 3.35
Betcity 1.95 3.4 3.6
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Van
L L W W L
2026-05-27 Premier League 25/26
Van Pyunik Yerevan 2:1 Van
2026-05-16 Premier League 25/26
Van Van 0:1 Alashkert
2026-05-08 Premier League 25/26
Van Van 1:0 Shirak Gyumri
2026-05-02 Premier League 25/26
Van Gandzasar 0:1 Van
2026-04-26 Premier League 25/26
Van Urartu 2:0 Van
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
6 Points
Sardarapat
W W D W D
2026-05-25 First League 25/26
Bentonit 1:3 Sardarapat Sardarapat
2026-05-17 First League 25/26
Sardarapat 2:1 Syuniq Sardarapat
2026-05-11 First League 25/26
Andranik 1:1 Sardarapat Sardarapat
2026-05-05 First League 25/26
Sardarapat 4:2 Ararat-Armenia 2 Sardarapat
2026-04-27 First League 25/26
Hayq 0:0 Sardarapat Sardarapat
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyVan - Sardarapat

Van
0 matches total
Sardarapat
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history