Match center
Start
30.07.2026 08:30 UTC
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30.07.2026 08:30 UTC
Finished
Australia. Queensland. Premier League
North Star - Capalaba
1
:
0
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 North Star — 53%
Pure model vs market (1 · North Star): model 31% · market 55% Δ −24 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win North Star 53.1%, draw 21.2%, win Capalaba 25.7%. Model favourite — North Star.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1North Star (odds2.00)
Score 2:1
confidence 50%
✓ outcome correct
- • Model backs Nort Star: probability 50% vs 50% on the line (odds 2.00)
- • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction North Star - Capalaba July 30, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like North Star.
Line favourite market consensus: North Star. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.87 / X 4.53 / 2 4.66
- Glicko: North Star 53.1% / X 21.2% / Capalaba 25.7%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin -3.0%
1
55.1%
X
22.8%
2
22.1%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1
1.35
↓ 1.12
1X2 X
3.80
↑ 5.30
1X2 2
8.50
↑ 32.00
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Match center
North Star - Capalaba
Form
5/4
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:0
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 53.1% fact: home
hit / ROI 87.0% / Brier 0.330 / LogLoss 0.632
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 53.1% fact: home
hit / ROI 87.0% / Brier 0.330 / LogLoss 0.632
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
North Star
54.5%
53.1%
market and model agree
Draw
21.1%
21.2%
draw risk
Capalaba
24.4%
25.7%
1X2: 2 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
53.1% / 21.2% / 25.7%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,148 / 1,412
North Star / Capalaba
RD
187 / 213
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
774-1,522 / 987-1,838
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.88
market consensus · no value · model 25.7%
X
4.32
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.69
market consensus · no value · model 53.1%
Double chance
12
1.19
market consensus · no value · model 78.8%
1X
1.32
market consensus · no value · model 74.3%
X2
1.83
market consensus · no value · model 46.9%
Handicap
2 +1
1.95
market consensus · line only
2 0
2.47
market consensus · line only
1 -1
1.75
market consensus · line only
1 0
1.48
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.31
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
3.10
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.67
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.42
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.67 37.5% |
| yes | 1.42 70.4% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.19 84.0% |
| 1x | 1.32 75.8% |
| x2 | 1.83 54.6% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.90 52.6% | |
| X | 2.66 37.6% |
| 4.82 20.8% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 1.90 52.6% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.80 55.6% |
Match center
North Star
L
L
L
L
L
North Star
0:1
Ipswich
Ipswich
North Star
0:1
Kholland Park Khoks
Kholland Park Khoks
North Star
1:2
Redlends
Redlends
North Star
0:1
Sanshayn-Kost Uondererz
Sanshayn-Kost Uondererz
North Star
1:3
Brisben Straykers
Brisben Straykers
0
Wins
0
Draws
5
Losses
0.4
Scored
1.6
Conceded
0
Points
Capalaba
W
D
L
L
Capalaba
3:0
Kholland Park Khoks
Kholland Park Khoks
Capalaba
1:1
Redlends
Redlends
Capalaba
0:2
Sent-Dzhordzh Uillavong
Sent-Dzhordzh Uillavong
Capalaba
0:1
Logan Laytning
Logan Laytning
1
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.0
Conceded
4
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyNorth Star - Capalaba
North Star
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form