PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Bolivia. Primera division
Bolivia. Primera division
27.07.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
27.07.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

Bolivia. Primera division

Gremio Valparaiso U20 - Ceilandia U20

Football
Gremio Valparaiso U20
Gremio Valparaiso U20
4 : 2
Finished
Ceilandia U20
Ceilandia U20
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Gremio Valparaiso U20 — 47%

Pure model vs market (1 · Gremio Valparaiso U20): model 29% · market 48% Δ −19 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Gremio Valparaiso U2047.1%
X · draw28.3%
2 · Ceilandia U2024.6%

Model estimate: win Gremio Valparaiso U20 47.1%, draw 28.3%, win Ceilandia U20 24.6%. Model favourite — Gremio Valparaiso U20.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Gremio Valparaiso U20 - Ceilandia U20 July 27, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Gremio Valparaiso U20.

Line favourite market consensus: Gremio Valparaiso U20. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.10 / X 3.60 / 2 4.10
  • Glicko: Gremio Valparaiso U20 47.1% / X 28.3% / Ceilandia U20 24.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin -0.2%
1 47.7%
X 27.8%
2 24.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Gremio Valparaiso U20 4 : 1 Ceilandia U20

Score prediction: third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 27.07.2026 16:30 UTC
Match center

Gremio Valparaiso U20 - Ceilandia U20

Form 4/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 4:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 47.1% fact: home hit / ROI 110.0% / Brier 0.420 / LogLoss 0.752
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 47.1% fact: home hit / ROI 110.0% / Brier 0.420 / LogLoss 0.752
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Gremio Valparaiso U20 48.3% 47.1% market and model agree
Draw 28.8% 28.3% draw risk
Ceilandia U20 22.9% 24.6%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 47.1% / 28.3% / 24.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,444 / 1,772 Gremio Valparaiso U20 / Ceilandia U20
RD 218 / 262 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,009-1,879 / 1,247-2,296 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.93 market consensus · no value · model 24.6%
X 3.18 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.60 market consensus · no value · model 47.1%
Total
Over 2.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.00 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Total

Outcome Bet365
Over 2.5 1.80 55.6%
Under 2.5 2.00 50.0%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Bet365 Bet365 (no latency) Betfair
2.10 47.6% 1.66 60.2% 1.04 96.2%
X 2.75 36.4% 3.60 27.8% 25.00 4.0%
3.75 26.7% 4.10 24.4% 60.00 1.7%
Match center
Gremio Valparaiso U20
L W L W
19.07 16:30 UTC Brazil: Brasiliense U20 Standings
Gremio Valparaiso U20 0:6 Planaltina U20Planaltina U20
11.07 11:00 UTC Brazil: Brasiliense U20 Standings
Gremio Valparaiso U20 3:2 Kruzeyro DF U20
04.07 11:00 UTC Brazil: Brasiliense U20 Standings
Gremio Valparaiso U20 0:4 Santa-Mariya U20Santa-Mariya U20
14.06 16:30 UTC Brazil: Brasiliense U20 Standings
Gremio Valparaiso U20 3:1 Paranoa U20Paranoa U20
2 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.5 Scored
3.3 Conceded
6 Points
Ceilandia U20
D W W
19.07 16:30 UTC Brazil: Brasiliense U20 Standings
Ceilandia U20 1:1 Seylandense U20Seylandense U20
04.07 17:00 UTC Brazil: Brasiliense U20 Standings
Ceilandia U20 5:0 Luzianiya U20Luzianiya U20
06.06 11:00 UTC Brazil: Brasiliense U20 Standings
Ceilandia U20 4:2 Brazilia U20
2 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
3.3 Scored
1.0 Conceded
7 Points