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Brazil. Women. Series A1
Brazil. Women. Series A1
01.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

Brazil. Women. Series A1

Gremio (w) - America Minas Gerais (w)

Football
G
Gremio (w)
1 : 0
Finished
A
America Minas Gerais (w)

Gremio (w) meet America Minas Gerais (w) on August 1, 2026 in the Brazil. Women. Series A1.

Recent form (W-D-L): Gremio (w) 2-3-0, America Minas Gerais (w) 1-0-4. Sportsbooks lean towards Gremio (w), an implied 77% to win. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 76% to win — broadly in line with the market. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Gremio (w)76%

Pure model vs market (1 · Gremio (w)): model 55% · market 77% Δ −22 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Gremio (w) ✓ Pick75.8%
market77%
X · draw15.3%
market15%
2 · America Minas Gerais (w)8.9%
market8%

Model estimate: win Gremio (w) 75.8%, draw 15.3%, win America Minas Gerais (w) 8.9%. Model favourite — Gremio (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Gremio (w) (odds1.63) Score 2:0 confidence 61% ✓ outcome correct
  • Model backs Gremio (Zh): probability 61% vs 61% on the line (odds 1.63)
  • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
  • Expected score 2:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Gremio (w) - America Minas Gerais (w) August 1, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Gremio (w).

Strongest: Gremio (w) - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.17 / X 6.04 / 2 11.73
  • 1X2 market: Gremio (w) 77.1% / X 15.1% / America Minas Gerais (w) 7.8%
  • Glicko: Gremio (w) 75.8% / X 15.3% / America Minas Gerais (w) 8.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.6%
1 ✓ Pick 77.3%
X 15.0%
2 7.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Brasileiro Women
League table
Gremio (w)
#1018 ptsGP 135-3-519:14
America Minas Gerais (w)
#166 ptsGP 131-3-96:26
Best price across 12 books
1 1.21 Betano
X 6.50 Betfair
2 15.00 10Bet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Gremio (w)
W-D-L 5-3-2 Scored 1.70 Conceded 0.91 xG 0.94 xGA 1.68
America Minas Gerais (w)
W-D-L 1-3-6 Scored 0.60 Conceded 1.89 xG 0.63 xGA 2.38

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Gremio (w)
Rating 1601 xG 2.31 Win 74%
America Minas Gerais (w)
Rating 1321 xG 0.67 Win 9%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Gremio (w) 1 : 0 America Minas Gerais (w)
11.17
X6.40
211.50

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Market 1 77.3% @ 1.17 / X 15.0% @ 6.04 / 2 7.7% @ 11.73
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Gremio (w) 76%
💹 Market Gremio (w) 7714%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Gremio (w) - America Minas Gerais (w)

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 75.8% fact: home hit / ROI 21.0% / Brier 0.090 / LogLoss 0.278
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 75.8% fact: home hit / ROI 21.0% / Brier 0.090 / LogLoss 0.278
Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 75.8% fact: home hit / ROI 21.0% / Brier 0.090 / LogLoss 0.278
Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 75.8% fact: home hit / ROI 21.0% / Brier 0.090 / LogLoss 0.278
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Gremio (w) 77.1% 75.8% market and model agree
Draw 14.9% 15.3% draw risk
America Minas Gerais (w) 8.0% 8.9%
xG - 2.31 : 0.67
1X2: 15 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 75.8% / 15.3% / 8.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,576 / 1,370 Gremio (w) / America Minas Gerais (w)
RD 279 / 275 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,017-2,135 / 820-1,919 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.50 market consensus · no value · model 8.9%
X 2.40 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 75.8%
Double chance
12 1.45 Fonbet · value +22.8% · model 84.7%
1X 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 91.1%
X2 9.50 Fonbet · no value · model 24.2%
Total
Over 2.5 2.35 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.52 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.55 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.31 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6% 1.13 88.5% 1.13 88.5%
X 5.80 17.2% 6.40 15.6% 6.25 16.0% 6.00 16.7% 6.50 15.4% 4.80 20.8%
12.00 8.3% 11.40 8.8% 11.00 9.1% 11.50 8.7% 14.00 7.1% 9.50 10.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.55 64.5%
yes 2.31 43.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.07 93.5% 1.09 91.7% 1.45 69.0%
1x 1.03 97.1%
x2 3.80 26.3% 4.40 22.7% 9.50 10.5%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 15.00 6.7%
0_1 23.00 4.4%
0_2 56.00 1.8%
1_0 6.50 15.4%
1_1 10.00 10.0%
1_2 29.00 3.5%
1_3 91.00 1.1%
2_0 5.00 20.0%
2_1 8.00 12.5%
2_2 23.00 4.4%
2_3 76.00 1.3%
3_0 5.75 17.4%
3_1 8.50 11.8%
3_2 23.00 4.4%
3_3 81.00 1.2%
4_0 8.50 11.8%
4_1 13.00 7.7%
4_2 34.00 2.9%
Match center
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2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.6 Conceded
9 Points
America Minas Gerais (w)
L L W L L
2026-07-24 Brasileiro A1, Women 2026
America Minas Gerais (w) 0:1 Santos SP (w) America Minas Gerais (w)
2026-05-28 Soccer.Brazil.Copa do Brasil, Women 2026
Vasco da Gama (w) 1:0 America Minas Gerais (w) America Minas Gerais (w)
2026-05-24 Brasileiro A1, Women 2026
Botafogo RJ (w) 0:3 America Minas Gerais (w) America Minas Gerais (w)
2026-05-16 Brasileiro A1, Women 2026
America Minas Gerais (w) 0:2 Atletico Mineiro (w) America Minas Gerais (w)
2026-05-08 Brasileiro A1, Women 2026
Cruzeiro Minas Gerais (w) 4:0 America Minas Gerais (w) America Minas Gerais (w)
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
3 Points