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Brazil. Serie C
Brazil. Serie C
27.07.2026 21:00 UTC Match prediction
27.07.2026 21:00 UTC
Finished

Brazil. Serie C

Floresta - Malinga

Football
Floresta
Floresta
1 : 1
Finished
M
Malinga
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Malinga — 39%

Pure model vs market (2 · Malinga): model 42% · market 27% Δ +15 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Floresta30.1%
X · draw31.2%
2 · Malinga38.7%

Model estimate: win Floresta 30.1%, draw 31.2%, win Malinga 38.7%. Model favourite — Malinga.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.12) Score 1:1 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct · exact score
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 32% on the line (odds 3.12)
  • • edge over the line +18 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Floresta - Malinga July 27, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Floresta.

Line favourite Fonbet: Floresta. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.06 / X 5.90 / 2 2.42
  • Glicko: Floresta 30.1% / X 31.2% / Malinga 38.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 52.6%
1 61.8%
X 11.1%
2 27.1%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 3.10 ↓ 1.06
1X2 X 3.00 ↑ 5.90
1X2 2 2.25 ↑ 37.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Floresta 1 : 1 Malinga
12.99
X2.99
22.31

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:3/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated27.07.2026 22:40 UTC
1 28%
X 36% ✓ favourite
2 36%
Score0:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Double chance X2
Per AI data H2H: 0-1
Claude updated27.07.2026 22:51 UTC
1 29%
X 33%
2 38% ✓ favourite
Score1:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Double chance X2
Per AI data H2H: 1-1
Qwen updated27.07.2026 22:48 UTC
1 78% ✓ favourite
X 15%
2 7%
Score2:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Win DAC Dunayska Streda
Per AI data H2H: 0-0

AI consensus:2

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 28% 36% 36% 0:0 Under 2.5 No Double chance X2
Claude 29% 33% 38% 1:1 Under 2.5 No Double chance X2
Qwen 78% 15% 7% 2:0 Under 2.5 No Win DAC Dunayska Streda

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Match center
Start 27.07.2026 21:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Floresta 45%
📐 Math model Malinga 39%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Floresta - Malinga

Form 3/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 38.7% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.713 / LogLoss 1.164
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 38.7% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.713 / LogLoss 1.164
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Floresta 30.0% 30.1%
Draw 31.6% 31.2% draw risk
Malinga 38.5% 38.7% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 30.1% / 31.2% / 38.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,522 / 1,761 Floresta / Malinga
RD 184 / 237 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,153-1,890 / 1,286-2,236 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.40 market consensus · no value · model 38.7%
X 5.90 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 30.1%
Double chance
12 1.09 Fonbet · no value · model 68.8%
1X 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 61.3%
X2 6.90 Fonbet · weak value +382.3% · model 69.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.04 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.57 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.70 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.25 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.34 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.27 Fonbet · line only
Yes 3.25 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.27 78.7% 1.72 58.1%
yes 3.25 30.8% 2.01 49.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.34 74.6% 1.36 73.5% 1.09 91.7%
1x 1.47 68.0% 1.50 66.7% 1.02 98.0%
x2 1.30 76.9% 1.32 75.8% 6.90 14.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.98 25.1%
X 1.92 52.1%
3.06 32.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.48 67.6%
Under 0.5 2.36 42.4%
Match center
Floresta
D D L
11.07 12:00 UTC Brazil: Championship Brazil C - Pervyy etap Standings
Floresta 0:0 SER Kashias
04.07 21:30 UTC Brazil: Championship Brazil C - Pervyy etap Standings
Floresta 0:0 GuaraniGuarani
14.06 20:30 UTC Brazil: Championship Brazil C - Pervyy etap Standings
Floresta 1:2 FigeyrenseFigeyrense
0 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
0.3 Scored
0.7 Conceded
2 Points
Malinga
W W
12.07 17:00 UTC Brazil: Championship Brazil C - Pervyy etap Standings
Malinga 1:0 AnapolisAnapolis
04.07 20:00 UTC Brazil: Championship Brazil C - Pervyy etap Standings
Malinga 4:0 Volta-RedondaVolta-Redonda
2 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.5 Scored
0.0 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFloresta - Malinga

Floresta
0 matches total
Malinga
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history