Match center
Start
27.07.2026 20:30 UTC
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27.07.2026 20:30 UTC
Finished
Brazil. Serie B
CRB - Vila Nova
2
:
0
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 CRB — 48%
Pure model vs market (1 · CRB): model 38% · market 49% Δ −11 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win CRB 48.2%, draw 27.3%, win Vila Nova 24.5%. Model favourite — CRB.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction CRB - Vila Nova July 27, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like CRB.
Strongest: CRB - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.91 / X 3.36 / 2 3.92
- 1X2 market: CRB 48.7% / X 27.6% / Vila Nova 23.7%
- Glicko: CRB 48.2% / X 27.3% / Vila Nova 24.5%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 7.6%
1
48.6%
X
27.7%
2
23.7%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
CRB 48%
💹 Market
CRB 4865%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
CRB - Vila Nova
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:0
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 48.2% fact: home
hit / ROI 98.0% / Brier 0.403 / LogLoss 0.730
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 48.2% fact: home
hit / ROI 98.0% / Brier 0.403 / LogLoss 0.730
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
CRB
48.8%
48.2%
market and model agree
Draw
27.5%
27.3%
draw risk
Vila Nova
23.6%
24.5%
1X2: 16 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
48.2% / 27.3% / 24.5%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,521 / 1,633
CRB / Vila Nova
RD
143 / 152
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,235-1,807 / 1,329-1,938
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.90
market consensus · no value · model 24.5%
X
3.36
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.02
Fonbet · no value · model 48.2%
Double chance
12
1.01
Fonbet · no value · model 72.7%
1X
1.06
Fonbet · no value · model 75.5%
X2
9.50
Fonbet · weak value +392.3% · model 51.8%
Handicap
2 -1
2.40
Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5
1.76
market consensus · line only
2 +1
7.90
Fonbet · line only
2 0
6.40
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.04
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.01
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.06
Fonbet · line only
Yes
6.90
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.90 52.6% | 1.89 52.9% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.85 54.1% | |
| X | 3.40 29.4% | 3.42 29.2% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.45 29.0% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.25 30.8% |
| 4.00 25.0% | 3.96 25.3% | 3.75 26.7% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.10 24.4% | 3.80 26.3% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.06 94.3% | 1.84 54.4% |
| yes | 6.90 14.5% | 1.93 51.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.30 76.9% | 1.01 99.0% |
| 1x | 1.23 81.3% | 1.06 94.3% |
| x2 | 1.76 56.8% | 9.50 10.5% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 0_1 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 0_2 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 0_3 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 0_4 | 126.00 0.8% |
| 1_0 | 5.50 18.2% |
| 1_1 | 5.75 17.4% |
| 1_2 | 11.00 9.1% |
| 1_3 | 29.00 3.5% |
| 1_4 | 81.00 1.2% |
| 2_0 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 2_1 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 2_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 2_3 | 34.00 2.9% |
| 2_4 | 91.00 1.1% |
| 3_0 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 3_1 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 3_2 | 23.00 4.4% |
Match center
Form & head-to-head
H2H 4-1-3, avg 2.0 gls
2026-07-27 · Regatas Brazil 2:0 Vila Nova
2026-03-21 · Regatas Brazil 2:2 Vila Nova
2025-11-15 · Regatas Brazil 2:0 Vila Nova
2025-07-23 · Regatas Brazil 0:2 Vila Nova
2024-09-04 · Regatas Brazil 0:1 Vila Nova
Source: ruscore
Odds · 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 1.91 (Liga Stavok) · X 3.3 (Winline) · 2 3.95 (Pari)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.82 | 3.25 | 3.95 |
| Winline | 1.9 | 3.3 | 3.85 |
| Fonbet | 1.82 | 3.25 | 3.95 |
| Betcity | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| Liga Stavok | 1.91 | 3.3 | 3.85 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Match stats
45
Ball possession
55
23
Vsego udarov
12
12
Shots on target
5
7
Shots off target
6
9
Udary ot vorot
10
4
Blokirovannye udary
1
14
Shtrafnye
9
6
Corners
5
3
Offsides
0
12
Auty
16
4
Saves
6
12
Fouls
14
0
Cards total
2
0
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
0
Second yellows
0
2
Travmy
1
5
Substitutions
5
Source: ruscore
CRB
W
W
D
L
W
CRB
1:0
Seara
Seara
CRB
2:1
Nautiko
Nautiko
CRB
2:2
Goyas
Goyas
CRB
0:5
Londrina
Londrina
CRB
1:0
Botafogo San-Paulu
Botafogo San-Paulu
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.2
Scored
1.6
Conceded
10
Points
Vila Nova
W
L
L
W
W
Vila Nova
2:1
Fortaleza
Fortaleza
Vila Nova
0:2
Kriciuma
Vila Nova
0:1
Zhuventude
Zhuventude
Vila Nova
2:1
San-Bernardo
San-Bernardo
Vila Nova
1:0
Botafogo San-Paulu
Botafogo San-Paulu
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.0
Conceded
9
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyCRB - Vila Nova
CRB
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form