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Brazil. Copa Governo do Estado de Sergipe. Group stage
Brazil. Copa Governo do Estado de Sergipe. Group stage
29.07.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
29.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Brazil. Copa Governo do Estado de Sergipe. Group stage

Atletica Gloriense - Desportiva Aracaju

Football
A
Atletica Gloriense
0 : 0
Finished
D
Desportiva Aracaju
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Atletica Gloriense — 41%

Pure model vs market (1 · Atletica Gloriense): model 44% · market 16% Δ +28 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Atletica Gloriense41.5%
X · draw28.1%
2 · Desportiva Aracaju30.5%

Model estimate: win Atletica Gloriense 41.5%, draw 28.1%, win Desportiva Aracaju 30.5%. Model favourite — Atletica Gloriense.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Atletica Gloriense (odds1.74) Score 2:1 confidence 54% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Atletiko Gloriense: probability 54% vs 58% on the line (odds 1.74)
  • • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atletica Gloriense - Desportiva Aracaju July 29, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.

Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 5.70 / X 1.18 / 2 14.00
  • Glicko: Atletica Gloriense 41.5% / X 28.1% / Desportiva Aracaju 30.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.4%
1 16.0%
X 77.4%
2 6.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 29.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

Atletica Gloriense - Desportiva Aracaju

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, table home - 41.5% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.783 / LogLoss 1.271
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, table home - 41.5% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.783 / LogLoss 1.271
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Atletica Gloriense 41.3% 41.5% market and model agree
Draw 28.4% 28.1% draw risk
Desportiva Aracaju 30.3% 30.5%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 41.5% / 28.1% / 30.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Atletica Gloriense / Desportiva Aracaju
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.96 market consensus · no value · model 30.5%
X 1.18 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 5.70 Fonbet · no value · model 41.5%
Double chance
12 4.05 Fonbet · weak value +191.4% · model 71.9%
1X 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 69.5%
X2 1.11 Fonbet · no value · model 58.5%
Handicap
2 +1 1.46 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.00 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 2.60 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.30 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.81 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.65 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.02 98.0% 2.12 47.2%
yes 10.50 9.5% 1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.26 79.4% 1.30 76.9% 4.05 24.7%
1x 1.30 76.9% 1.34 74.6% 1.02 98.0%
x2 1.54 64.9% 1.60 62.5% 1.11 90.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.86 35.0%
X 2.07 48.3%
3.61 27.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.79 55.9%
Under 1 1.91 52.4%