FreeMatch preview

Gremio Bage — Apafut

Football 12.08.2026 22:00 UTC
Favourite Gremio Bage best odds 1.71

AI analysis of team form, streaks and match statistics — full pick, probabilities and value below.

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Brazil. Gaucho. Division 2
Brazil. Gaucho. Division 2
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
12.08.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished

Brazil. Gaucho. Division 2

Gremio Bage - Apafut

Football
Gremio Bage
Gremio Bage
0 : 3
Finished
A
Apafut

Gremio Bage face Apafut on August 12, 2026 in the Brazil. Gaucho. Division 2.

Recent form (W-D-L): Gremio Bage 1-1-1, Apafut 1-1-1. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PropickAI AI pick.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Gremio Bage (odds1.73) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • Model backs Bazhe: probability 50% vs 58% on the line (odds 1.73)
  • no edge over the line (-8 pp) — informational only
  • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Gremio Bage - Apafut August 12, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Gremio Bage. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.71 / X 3.26 / 2 5.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.1% 5 books
1 53.6%
X 28.2%
2 18.2%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Gremio Bage
54%
1.71
Draw
28%
3.26
Apafut
18%
5.00
Handicap
Gremio Bage (0)
72%
1.29
Apafut (0)
28%
3.30
Total
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Under 2.5
61%
1.53

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Gremio Bage 1 : 1 Apafut
11.68
X3.18
25.21

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 12.08.2026 22:00 UTC
Market 1 53.6% @ 1.71 / X 28.1% @ 3.26 / 2 18.3% @ 5.00
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Match center

Gremio Bage - Apafut

Form 3/3 recent games
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form home - 53.2% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.018 / LogLoss 1.665
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form home - 53.2% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.018 / LogLoss 1.665
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.92 market consensus · line only
X 3.17 market consensus · line only
1 1.67 market consensus · line only
Double chance
12 1.26 market consensus · line only
1X 1.10 market consensus · line only
X2 1.95 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 +1 1.54 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.30 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.33 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.29 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.36 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.50 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.60 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.19 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.60 62.5%
yes 2.19 45.7%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet
12 1.26 79.4% 1.30 76.9% 1.24 80.7% 1.24 80.7%
1x 1.10 90.9% 1.13 88.5% 1.09 91.7% 1.09 91.7%
x2 1.93 51.8% 2.03 49.3% 1.92 52.1% 1.92 52.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.37 42.2%
X 1.90 52.6%
6.20 16.1%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 2.28 43.9%
Under 1 1.56 64.1%
Match center
Gremio Bage
D W L
10.08 18:00 UTC Brazil: Gaucho 2 Standings
Gremio Bage 1:1 Pelotas
05.08 22:30 UTC Brazil: Gaucho 2 Standings
Gremio Bage 2:0 Lazheadense
02.08 18:00 UTC Brazil: Gaucho 2 Standings
Gremio Bage 0:3 Frederikoense
1 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.3 Conceded
4 Points
Apafut
W D L
10.08 18:00 UTC Brazil: Gaucho 2 Standings
Apafut 1:0 GauchoGaucho
06.08 18:00 UTC Brazil: Gaucho 2 Standings
Apafut 1:1 EsportivoEsportivo
02.08 18:00 UTC Brazil: Gaucho 2 Standings
Apafut 0:1 Pasu-Fundu
1 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
0.7 Scored
0.7 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Gremio Bage - Apafut

Gremio Bage
0 matches total
Apafut
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history

Frequently asked questions

When does Gremio Bage vs Apafut start?

August 12, 2026.