Brazil. Copa Rio. Round of 16. Second leg
São Gonçalo EC RJ take on Sampaio Corrêa RJ on August 5, 2026 in the Brazil. Copa Rio. Round of 16. Second leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): São Gonçalo EC RJ 1-0-0, Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1-0-0. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 24% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Sampaio Corrêa RJ — 47%
Pure model vs market (2 · Sampaio Corrêa RJ): model 38% · market 48% Δ −10 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win São Gonçalo EC RJ 23.7%, draw 29.4%, win Sampaio Corrêa RJ 47.0%. Model favourite — Sampaio Corrêa RJ.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| no | 1.01 99.0% |
| yes | 11.00 9.1% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.24 80.7% | 1.30 76.9% | 4.15 24.1% |
| 1x | 1.77 56.5% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.07 93.5% |
| x2 | 1.13 88.5% | 1.26 79.4% | 1.04 96.2% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | 1.02 98.0% | |
| — | — | 1.01 99.0% | |
| — | — | 12.00 8.3% | |
| 3.10 32.3% | 2.55 39.2% | 2.40 41.7% | |
| — | — | 9.50 10.5% | |
| — | — | 12.00 8.3% | |
| — | — | 1.01 99.0% | |
| 1.30 76.9% | 1.45 69.0% | 1.50 66.7% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | — | — | 4.40 22.7% |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | 12.00 8.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.10 47.6% | 2.30 43.5% | 10.50 9.5% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | 10.50 9.5% |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | 7.70 13.0% |
| Under 0.5 | — | — | 1.16 86.2% |
| Under 1.5 | — | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.62 61.7% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.01 99.0% |
| Under 3.5 | — | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Under 4.5 | — | — | 1.04 96.2% |
São Gonçalo EC RJ
Volta-Redonda
Full head-to-head historySão Gonçalo EC RJ - Sampaio Corrêa RJ
The São Gonçalo EC RJ - Sampaio Corrêa RJ breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
