Match center
Start
26.07.2026 11:00 UTC
Sign in to unlock the full prediction
Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
26.07.2026 11:00 UTC
Finished
Brazil: Paulista B - Playoff
America SP - Itaqua
A
America SP
1
:
1
Finished
I
Itaqua
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 America SP — 53%
Pure model vs market (1 · America SP): model 39% · market 12% Δ +27 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win America SP 53.2%, draw 20.6%, win Itaqua 26.2%. Model favourite — America SP.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1America SP (odds2.70)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
✗ outcome missed
- • Model backs America SP: probability 50% vs 37% on the line (odds 2.70)
- • edge over the line +13 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction America SP - Itaqua July 26, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.
Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 7.40 / X 1.22 / 2 7.20
- Glicko: America SP 53.2% / X 20.6% / Itaqua 26.2%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.4%
1
12.4%
X
74.9%
2
12.7%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
America SP
1
:
2
Itaqua
12.87
X3.10
22.32
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Match center
America SP - Itaqua
Form
3/3
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 53.2% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.983 / LogLoss 1.581
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 53.2% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.983 / LogLoss 1.581
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
America SP
33.3%
53.2%
Glicko contrarian
Draw
28.5%
20.6%
draw risk
Itaqua
38.2%
26.2%
market favourite
1X2: 1 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
53.2% / 20.6% / 26.2%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,896 / 1,948
America SP / Itaqua
RD
184 / 181
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,528-2,263 / 1,585-2,311
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
7.20
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 26.2%
X
1.22
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
7.40
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 53.2%
Double chance
12
3.65
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 79.4%
1X
1.07
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 73.8%
X2
1.07
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 46.8%
Handicap
2 0
1.85
Fonbet · line only
1 0
1.85
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
8.00
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
1.04
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.35
Fonbet · line only
Yes
1.53
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| no | 2.35 42.6% |
| yes | 1.53 65.4% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.24 80.7% | 3.65 27.4% |
| 1x | 1.43 69.9% | 1.07 93.5% |
| x2 | 1.32 75.8% | 1.07 93.5% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Baltbet | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| — | 1.01 99.0% | |
| — | 1.01 99.0% | |
| — | 11.50 8.7% | |
| — | 8.00 12.5% | |
| 1.97 50.8% | 1.85 54.1% | |
| — | 11.00 9.1% | |
| — | 12.00 8.3% | |
| — | 1.01 99.0% | |
| — | 1.04 96.2% | |
| 1.71 58.5% | 1.85 54.1% |
Total
| Outcome | Baltbet | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | — | 1.17 85.5% |
| Over 1.5 | — | 1.15 87.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.10 47.6% | 8.00 12.5% |
| Over 3.5 | — | 7.50 13.3% |
| Over 4.5 | — | 11.00 9.1% |
| Over 5.5 | — | 10.50 9.5% |
| Under 0.5 | — | 4.20 23.8% |
| Under 1.5 | — | 4.50 22.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.63 61.4% | 1.04 96.2% |
| Under 3.5 | — | 1.05 95.2% |
| Under 4.5 | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Under 5.5 | — | 1.02 98.0% |
Match center
America SP
W
D
W
America SP
4:2
Jose Bonifacio EC
America SP
0:0
Jose Bonifacio EC
America SP
3:0
Santakruzense
Santakruzense
2
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
2.3
Scored
0.7
Conceded
7
Points
Itaqua
W
W
W
Itaqua
1:0
Uniao Mogi
Uniao Mogi
Itaqua
4:1
Uniao Mogi
Uniao Mogi
Itaqua
3:0
Paulinia FU
3
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
2.7
Scored
0.3
Conceded
9
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAmerica SP - Itaqua
America SP
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The America SP - Itaqua breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form