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Brazil: Paulista B - Playoff
Brazil: Paulista B - Playoff
25.07.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
25.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Brazil: Paulista B - Playoff

Flamengo SP - Independente SP

Football
F
Flamengo SP
1 : 0
Finished
Independente SP
Independente SP
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Flamengo SP — 37%

Pure model vs market (1 · Flamengo SP): model 36% · market 68% Δ −32 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Flamengo SP37.5%
X · draw29.1%
2 · Independente SP33.4%

Model estimate: win Flamengo SP 37.5%, draw 29.1%, win Independente SP 33.4%. Model favourite — Flamengo SP.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 «Confident pick»

2Independente SP — 65%

The most likely outcome per the model. Reliability, NOT a profit guarantee.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Independente SP (odds1.42) Score 0:2 confidence 65% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Independente SP: probability 65% vs 71% on the line (odds 1.42)
  • • no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 0:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Flamengo SP - Independente SP July 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Flamengo SP.

Line favourite Fonbet: Flamengo SP. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.10 / X 4.50 / 2 4.75
  • Glicko: Flamengo SP 37.5% / X 29.1% / Independente SP 33.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 34.2%
1 67.7%
X 16.6%
2 15.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Flamengo SP 1 : 3 Independente SP
12.47
X2.80
22.94

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Buy the full AI analysis

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Match center
Start 25.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Match center

Flamengo SP - Independente SP

Form 3/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 37.5% fact: home hit / Brier 0.587 / LogLoss 0.981
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 37.5% fact: home hit / Brier 0.587 / LogLoss 0.981
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Flamengo SP 37.6% 37.5% market and model agree
Draw 29.4% 29.1% draw risk
Independente SP 33.0% 33.4%
1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 37.5% / 29.1% / 33.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,612 / 1,699 Flamengo SP / Independente SP
RD 169 / 300 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,274-1,950 / 1,100-2,299 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.12 market consensus · no value · model 33.4%
X 4.50 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.10 Fonbet · no value · model 37.5%
Double chance
12 1.16 Fonbet · no value · model 70.9%
1X 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 66.6%
X2 5.30 Fonbet · weak value +231.3% · model 62.5%
Handicap
2 +1 1.71 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.21 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.02 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 8.50 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.03 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.23 Fonbet · line only
Yes 3.55 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.23 81.3% 1.86 53.8%
yes 3.55 28.2% 1.84 54.4%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.32 75.8% 1.39 71.9% 1.16 86.2%
1x 1.29 77.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.02 98.0%
x2 1.37 73.0% 1.45 69.0% 5.30 18.9%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.54 39.4%
X 2.03 49.3%
4.46 22.4%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.96 51.0%
Under 1 1.75 57.1%
Match center
Flamengo SP
W W W
18.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista B - Playoff
Flamengo SP 3:1 Matonense
11.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista B - Playoff
Flamengo SP 1:0 Matonense
04.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista B - Playoff
Flamengo SP 2:1 Odeks-SP
3 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.7 Conceded
9 Points
Independente SP
W W W L L
19.07 11:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Paulista B - Playoff
Independente SP 2:1 Paulinense
12.07 11:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Paulista B - Playoff
Independente SP 1:0 Paulinense
05.07 11:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Paulista B - Playoff
Independente SP 2:0 Tupa
13.06 16:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Paulista B Standings
Independente SP 0:2 San-KarlosSan-Karlos
07.06 11:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Paulista B Standings
Independente SP 0:1 SantakruzenseSantakruzense
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
9 Points