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Brazil. U20. Paulista
Brazil. U20. Paulista
31.07.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
31.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Brazil. U20. Paulista

Capivariano U20 - Porto Football U20

Football
Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
2 : 1
Finished
Porto Football U20
Porto Football U20
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Porto Football U20 — 63%

1 · Capivariano U2019.9%
market6%
X · draw17.5%
market20%
2 · Porto Football U20 ✓ Pick62.6%
market74%

Model estimate: win Capivariano U20 19.9%, draw 17.5%, win Porto Football U20 62.6%. Model favourite — Porto Football U20.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Capivariano U20 - Porto Football U20 July 31, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Porto Football U20.

Line favourite Fonbet: Porto Football U20. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 15.00 / X 4.60 / 2 1.23
  • Glicko: Capivariano U20 19.9% / X 17.5% / Porto Football U20 62.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.7%
1 6.1%
X 19.8%
2 ✓ Pick 74.1%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 8.50 ↑ 9.00
1X2 X 1.25 → 1.25
1X2 2 1.08 ↑ 5.30

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Paulista - U20
League table
Capivariano U20
#2010 ptsGP 72-4-19:8
ARRAY
Porto Football U20
#441 ptsGP 80-1-71:12
ARRAY
Best price across 8 books
1 1.40 William Hill
X 4.70 Dafabet
2 7.40 1xBet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Capivariano U20
W-D-L 2-5-3 Scored 1.00 Conceded 1.04 xG 1.32 xGA 1.39
Porto Football U20
W-D-L 1-2-7 Scored 0.37 Conceded 1.44 xG 0.84 xGA 2.33

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Capivariano U20
Rating 1657 xG 2.06 Win 68%
Porto Football U20
Rating 1362 xG 0.75 Win 13%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Capivariano U20 1 : 3 Porto Football U20
14.89
X3.58
21.62

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 31.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Market 1 6.1% @ 15.00 / X 19.8% @ 4.60 / 2 74.1% @ 1.23
Match center

Capivariano U20 - Porto Football U20

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 62.6% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.064 / LogLoss 1.614
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 62.6% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.064 / LogLoss 1.614
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Capivariano U20 18.1% 19.9%
Draw 24.1% 17.5% draw risk
Porto Football U20 57.8% 62.6% market and model agree
xG - 2.06 : 0.75
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 19.9% / 17.5% / 62.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,345 / 1,889 Referencia U20 / Guarani SP U20
RD 173 / 193 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 999-1,691 / 1,502-2,275 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.23 Fonbet · no value · model 62.6%
X 4.60 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 5.00 market consensus · no value · model 19.9%
Double chance
12 1.15 Fonbet · no value · model 82.5%
1X 3.55 Fonbet · no value · model 37.4%
X2 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 80.1%
Handicap
2 -1 2.15 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.02 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 1.65 market consensus · line only
1 0 9.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 5.00 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.12 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.30 Fonbet · line only
Yes 3.10 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.30 76.9% 1.90 52.6%
yes 3.10 32.3% 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome Fonbet
12 1.15 87.0%
1x 3.55 28.2%
x2 1.02 98.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
5.40 18.5%
X 2.13 47.0%
2.19 45.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.78 56.2%
Under 1 1.93 51.8%
Match center
Capivariano U20
W L L L D
26.07 11:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Capivariano U20 1:0 Porto Football U20Porto Football U20
17.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Capivariano U20 0:2 Kapivariano U20
05.07 11:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Capivariano U20 1:4 Bragantino U20Bragantino U20
26.06 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Capivariano U20 1:2 Gremio Prudente U20Gremio Prudente U20
12.06 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Capivariano U20 1:1 Ituano U20
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
4 Points
Porto Football U20
W W W W W
24.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Porto Football U20 1:0 Tanabi U20Tanabi U20
17.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Porto Football U20 4:1 Osasko U20Osasko U20
10.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Porto Football U20 2:1 Maua U20Maua U20
03.07 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Porto Football U20 2:0 Sfera U20Sfera U20
12.06 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista U20 Standings
Porto Football U20 1:0 Flamengo SP U20Flamengo SP U20
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.4 Conceded
15 Points