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Brazil: Paulista Women Standings
Brazil: Paulista Women Standings
27.07.2026 20:00 UTC Match prediction
27.07.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished

Brazil: Paulista Women Standings

Sao Paulo (w) - Mirassol (w)

Football
Sao Paulo (w)
Sao Paulo (w)
0 : 0
Finished
M
Mirassol (w)
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Sao Paulo (w) — 73%

Pure model vs market (1 · Sao Paulo (w)): model 63% · market 84% Δ −21 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Sao Paulo (w) ✓ Pick73.3%
market84%
X · draw20.6%
market10%
2 · Mirassol (w)6.1%
market6%

Model estimate: win Sao Paulo (w) 73.3%, draw 20.6%, win Mirassol (w) 6.1%. Model favourite — Sao Paulo (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sao Paulo (w) - Mirassol (w) July 27, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sao Paulo (w).

Line favourite Fonbet: Sao Paulo (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.03 / X 9.00 / 2 13.90
  • Glicko: Sao Paulo (w) 73.3% / X 20.6% / Mirassol (w) 6.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 15.4%
1 ✓ Pick 84.1%
X 9.6%
2 6.2%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.83 ↑ 11.50
1X2 X 3.00 ↓ 1.04
1X2 2 5.00 ↑ 20.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Sao Paulo (w) 4 : 0 Mirassol (w)
11.11
X7.00
213.50

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 27.07.2026 20:00 UTC
Match center

Sao Paulo (w) - Mirassol (w)

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 73.3% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.172 / LogLoss 1.581
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 73.3% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.172 / LogLoss 1.581
Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 73.3% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.172 / LogLoss 1.581
Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 73.3% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.172 / LogLoss 1.581
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sao Paulo (w) 74.0% 73.3% market and model agree
Draw 20.7% 20.6% draw risk
Mirassol (w) 5.4% 6.1%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 73.3% / 20.6% / 6.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,850 / 1,333 Sao Paulo (w) / Mirassol (w)
RD 184 / 246 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,482-2,218 / 841-1,826 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
X 9.00 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 73.3%
Double chance
12 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 79.4%
1X 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 93.9%
X2 7.70 Fonbet · no value · model 26.7%
Handicap
2 0 5.90 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.10 Fonbet · line only
Total
Under 2.5 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.78 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.93 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.78 56.2%
yes 1.93 51.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.14 87.7% 1.17 85.5% 1.02 98.0%
1x — — 1.05 95.2%
x2 3.40 29.4% 3.70 27.0% 7.70 13.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.48 67.6%
X 3.01 33.2%
10.10 9.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 1.99 50.3%
Under 1.5 1.73 57.8%
Match center
Sao Paulo (w)
L W
18.07 11:30 UTC Brazil: Paulista Women Standings
Sao Paulo (w) 0:1 Palmeyras (Zh)
12.07 19:30 UTC Brazil: Paulista Women Standings
Sao Paulo (w) 2:1 Taubate (Zh)
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
Mirassol (w)
D L
16.07 21:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista Women Standings
Mirassol (w) 1:1 Bragantino (Zh)
07.06 16:00 UTC Brazil: Paulista Women Standings
Mirassol (w) 0:2 Taubate (Zh)
0 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
0.5 Scored
1.5 Conceded
1 Points