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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
19 round 17.07.2026 21:00 UTC Match prediction
17.07.2026 21:00 UTC 19 round
Finished

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Mirassol - Gremio

Football
M
Mirassol
2 : 1
Finished
G
Gremio

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mirassol - Gremio July 17, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mirassol.

Line favourite market consensus: Mirassol. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.98 / X 3.35 / 2 3.87
  • 1X2 market: Mirassol 47.6% / X 28.1% / Gremio 24.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.2%
1 47.6%
X 28.1%
2 24.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Serie A
League table
Mirassol
#1819 ptsGP 185-4-920:25
WLWLD
Gremio
#1621 ptsGP 195-6-821:25
LLWDL
Best price across 14 books
1 2.00 Superbet
X 3.45 Dafabet
2 4.48 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Mirassol
W-D-L 3-1-6 Scored 1.00 Conceded 1.40 xG 1.19 xGA 1.24 Corners 5.7
Gremio
W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 0.70 Conceded 1.10 xG 1.12 xGA 1.43 Corners 3.6

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Mirassol
Rating 1455 xG 1.43 Win 45%
Gremio
Rating 1500 xG 1.08 Win 29%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Mirassol 3 : 1 Gremio
11.95
X3.38
24.32

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 17.07.2026 21:00 UTC
Match center

Mirassol - Gremio

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Mirasol - Gremio, 18 iyulya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Brazil po futbolu (Seriya A) 2026, 19 round. Mirasol - Gremio, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.89 market consensus · line only
X 7.50 Fonbet · line only
1 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 1.05 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.05 Fonbet · line only
X2 1.83 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -1 2.25 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.88 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.00 Fonbet · line only
2 0 7.30 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.88 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.87 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.28 Fonbet · line only
Yes 3.30 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.97 50.8% 2.02 49.5% 1.95 51.3% 2.02 49.5% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.44 29.1% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4%
3.85 26.0% 3.91 25.6% 4.10 24.4% 3.90 25.6% 3.80 26.3% 3.90 25.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.28 78.1% 1.84 54.4%
yes 3.30 30.3% 1.97 50.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.05 95.2%
1x 1.23 81.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.05 95.2%
x2 1.83 54.6% 1.82 55.0% 10.50 9.5%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 8.00 12.5%
0_1 8.50 11.8%
0_2 15.00 6.7%
0_3 41.00 2.4%
0_4 101.00 1.0%
1_0 5.75 17.4%
1_1 5.50 18.2%
1_2 10.00 10.0%
1_3 29.00 3.5%
1_4 76.00 1.3%
2_0 7.50 13.3%
2_1 7.00 14.3%
2_2 13.00 7.7%
2_3 34.00 2.9%
2_4 91.00 1.1%
3_0 15.00 6.7%
3_1 13.00 7.7%
3_2 23.00 4.4%
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMirassol - Gremio

Mirassol
0 matches total
Gremio
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Mirassol
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Gremio
Mirassol Team comparison Gremio
17 Games 18
4 Wins 5
4 Draws 6
9 Losses 7
18 Scored 20
24 Conceded 23
16 Points 21
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
11.4 Shots on goal 7.6
4.94 Shots on target 3.5
irasol 38 round Goly Bruno Santos Igor Marques 1:0 16' Edson Denilson Alves Borges 2:0 40' Karlos Vinisius Kristian Pavon 2:1 77' Nakazaniya Denilson Alves Borges 38' Valter Kanneman 41' Gustavo Martins 65' Leonel Perez 79'

Mirasol Gremio 17 Games 18 4 Wins 5 4 Draws 6 9 Losses 7 18 Scored 20 24 Conceded 23 16 Points 21 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 11.4 Shots on goal 7.6 4.94 Udary v stvor 3.5 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.65 Uglovye 3.83 1.24 Offsaydy 1.61 12.18 Foly 13 51.29 % vladeniya myachom 48.83 2.76 Warnings 2.17 0.12 Sendoffs 0.22 Sleduyuschiy match 02.12.2026 Brazil — Seriya A Gremio –:– Mirasol 38 round Goly Bruno Santos Igor Marques 1:0 16' Edson Denilson Alves Borges 2:0 40' Karlos Vinisius Kristian Pavon 2:1 77' Nakazaniya Denilson Alves Borges 38' Valter Kanneman 41' Gustavo Martins 65' Leonel Perez 79'