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Brazil. Sul-Mato-Grossense. Serie B
Brazil. Sul-Mato-Grossense. Serie B
27.07.2026 21:30 UTC Match prediction
27.07.2026 21:30 UTC
Finished

Brazil. Sul-Mato-Grossense. Serie B

Taveiropolis - Sao Gabriel MS

Football
T
Taveiropolis
2 : 2
Finished
S
Sao Gabriel MS
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Taveiropolis — 48%

Pure model vs market (1 · Taveiropolis): model 49% · market 68% Δ −19 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Taveiropolis47.9%
X · draw27.3%
2 · Sao Gabriel MS24.8%

Model estimate: win Taveiropolis 47.9%, draw 27.3%, win Sao Gabriel MS 24.8%. Model favourite — Taveiropolis.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Taveiropolis (odds2.00) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Taveiropolis: probability 50% vs 50% on the line (odds 2.00)
  • • no edge over the line (+0 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Taveiropolis - Sao Gabriel MS July 27, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Taveiropolis.

Line favourite Fonbet: Taveiropolis. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.10 / X 5.90 / 2 3.84
  • Glicko: Taveiropolis 47.9% / X 27.3% / Sao Gabriel MS 24.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 33.9%
1 67.9%
X 12.7%
2 19.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Taveiropolis 3 : 1 Sao Gabriel MS
11.76
X3.52
24.02

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 27.07.2026 21:30 UTC
Match center

Taveiropolis - Sao Gabriel MS

Form 4/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 47.9% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.819 / LogLoss 1.298
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 47.9% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.819 / LogLoss 1.298
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Taveiropolis 47.8% 47.9% market and model agree
Draw 27.6% 27.3% draw risk
Sao Gabriel MS 24.6% 24.8%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 47.9% / 27.3% / 24.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,404 / 1,309 Taveiropolis / Sao Gabriel MS
RD 206 / 233 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 991-1,816 / 843-1,775 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.75 market consensus · no value · model 24.8%
X 5.90 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.10 Fonbet · no value · model 47.9%
Double chance
12 1.07 Fonbet · no value · model 72.7%
1X 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 75.2%
X2 4.90 Fonbet · weak value +155.4% · model 52.1%
Handicap
2 +1 1.43 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.66 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.70 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.40 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.86 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.84 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.86 53.8%
yes 1.84 54.4%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.07 93.5%
1x 1.20 83.3% 1.23 81.3% 1.01 99.0%
x2 1.73 57.8% 1.80 55.6% 4.90 20.4%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.47 40.5%
X 2.02 49.5%
4.74 21.1%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.95 51.3%
Under 1 1.76 56.8%
Match center
Taveiropolis
L W L W
17.07 21:30 UTC Brazil: Sul-Matogrossense 2 Standings
Taveiropolis 0:3 7 de Setembro
12.07 18:00 UTC Brazil: Sul-Matogrossense 2 Standings
Taveiropolis 2:0 Campo Grande
04.07 17:00 UTC Brazil: Sul-Matogrossense 2 Standings
Taveiropolis 0:1 Akidauanenshe
29.06 21:30 UTC Brazil: Sul-Matogrossense 2 Standings
Taveiropolis 1:0 Uniao
2 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
6 Points
Sao Gabriel MS
L D L
20.07 21:30 UTC Brazil: Sul-Matogrossense 2 Standings
Sao Gabriel MS 1:2 Akidauanenshe
11.07 17:00 UTC Brazil: Sul-Matogrossense 2 Standings
Sao Gabriel MS 0:0 Misto
05.07 21:30 UTC Brazil: Sul-Matogrossense 2 Standings
Sao Gabriel MS 1:3 Komersial
0 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
0.7 Scored
1.7 Conceded
1 Points