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Brazil: Cearense U20 - Playoff
Brazil: Cearense U20 - Playoff
25.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Brazil: Cearense U20 - Playoff

Ferroviario U20 - Fortaleza U20

Football
F
Ferroviario U20
0 : 1
Finished
Fortaleza U20
Fortaleza U20
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Fortaleza U2053%

Pure model vs market (2 · Fortaleza U20): model 22% · market 78% Δ −56 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Ferroviario U2022.1%
X · draw24.7%
2 · Fortaleza U2053.3%

Model estimate: win Ferroviario U20 22.1%, draw 24.7%, win Fortaleza U20 53.3%. Model favourite — Fortaleza U20.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ferroviario U20 - Fortaleza U20 July 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fortaleza U20.

Line favourite Fonbet: Fortaleza U20. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 15.00 / X 5.00 / 2 1.06
  • Glicko: Ferroviario U20 22.1% / X 24.7% / Fortaleza U20 53.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 21.0%
1 5.5%
X 16.5%
2 78.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Ferroviario U20 1 : 2 Fortaleza U20
13.90
X3.36
21.83

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 25.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Match center

Ferroviario U20 - Fortaleza U20

Form 2/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 53.3% fact: away hit / ROI 66.0% / Brier 0.328 / LogLoss 0.630
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 53.3% fact: away hit / ROI 66.0% / Brier 0.328 / LogLoss 0.630
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Ferroviario U20 19.9% 22.1%
Draw 24.9% 24.7% draw risk
Fortaleza U20 55.2% 53.3% market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 22.1% / 24.7% / 53.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,667 / 1,509 Ferroviario U20 / Fortaleza U20
RD 248 / 201 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,171-2,164 / 1,107-1,911 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 53.3%
X 5.00 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.74 market consensus · no value · model 22.1%
Double chance
12 1.11 Fonbet · no value · model 75.3%
1X 6.00 Fonbet · weak value +180.4% · model 46.7%
X2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 77.9%
Handicap
2 -1 2.13 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 1.64 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.71 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.81 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.81 55.3%
yes 1.90 52.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet
12 1.20 83.3% 1.11 90.1%
1x 2.10 47.6% 6.00 16.7%
x2 1.11 90.1% 1.01 99.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
5.40 18.5%
X 2.12 47.2%
2.20 45.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.88 53.2%
Under 1 1.82 55.0%
Match center
Ferroviario U20
W W
18.07 16:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Cearense U20 Standings
Ferroviario U20 1:0 Khorizonte U20
06.06 16:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Cearense U20 Standings
Ferroviario U20 2:1 Tiangua EC U20
2 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
1.5 Scored
0.5 Conceded
6 Points
Fortaleza U20
D W D L
18.07 16:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Cearense U20 Standings
Fortaleza U20 1:1 Tirol U20
15.07 16:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Cearense U20 Standings
Fortaleza U20 2:1 Kaukaya U20
01.07 16:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Brazileyro U20 Standings
Fortaleza U20 1:1 Vasko da Gama U20Vasko da Gama U20
11.06 16:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Brazileyro U20 Standings
Fortaleza U20 2:3 Kruzeyro U20Kruzeyro U20
1 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.5 Scored
1.5 Conceded
5 Points