Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings
Lagarto take on Falcon on August 1, 2026 in the Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings.
Recent form (W-D-L): Lagarto 3-1-1, Falcon 3-0-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 42% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Lagarto — 42%
Pure model vs market (1 · Lagarto): model 43% · market 29% Δ +14 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Lagarto 42.3%, draw 27.2%, win Falcon 30.5%. Model favourite — Lagarto.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Falcon.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.78 56.2% |
| yes | 1.93 51.8% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.25 80.0% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.11 90.1% |
| 1x | 1.30 76.9% | 1.34 74.6% | 5.10 19.6% |
| x2 | 1.56 64.1% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.01 99.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.86 35.0% | |
| X | 1.89 52.9% |
| 4.30 23.3% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 2.22 45.1% |
| Under 1 | 1.59 62.9% |
Full head-to-head historyLagarto - Falcon
The Lagarto - Falcon breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
