Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings
Lagarto go head-to-head with Guarani Asuncion on August 5, 2026 in the Brazil: Copa Governo (Sergipe) Standings.
Recent form (W-D-L): Lagarto 1-0-1, Guarani Asuncion 0-1-1. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 70% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Lagarto — 70%
Pure model vs market (1 · Lagarto): model 46% · market 71% Δ −25 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Lagarto 69.6%, draw 19.6%, win Guarani Asuncion 10.8%. Model favourite — Lagarto.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lagarto.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.39 71.9% |
| yes | 2.77 36.1% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.12 89.3% | 1.15 87.0% |
| 1x | 1.06 94.3% | 1.02 98.0% |
| x2 | 3.10 32.3% | 3.30 30.3% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.74 57.5% | |
| X | 2.28 43.9% |
| 10.20 9.8% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.86 53.8% |
| Under 1 | 1.84 54.4% |
Guarani Asuncion
Full head-to-head historyLagarto - Guarani Asuncion
The Lagarto - Guarani Asuncion breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
