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Brazil: Kopa Betano
Brazil: Kopa Betano
30.07.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
30.07.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

Brazil: Kopa Betano

Mirassol - Gremio

Football
M
Mirassol
2 : 1
Finished
G
Gremio
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Mirassol — 59%

1 · Mirassol ✓ Pick58.7%
X · draw18.7%
2 · Gremio22.6%

Model estimate: win Mirassol 58.7%, draw 18.7%, win Gremio 22.6%. Model favourite — Mirassol.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mirassol - Gremio July 30, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

  • Glicko: Mirassol 58.7% / X 18.7% / Gremio 22.6%

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.75 ↓ 1.02
1X2 X 3.70 ↑ 7.20
1X2 2 4.50 ↑ 89.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.07.2026 19:00 UTC
Match center

Mirassol - Gremio

Form 3/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement
More needed
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Mirassol 86.7% 58.7% market and model agree
Draw 12.3% 18.7% draw risk
Gremio 1.0% 22.6%
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 58.7% / 18.7% / 22.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,602 / 1,455 Mirassol / Gremio
RD 218 / 250 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,167-2,037 / 955-1,956 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
X 7.20 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 58.7%
Double chance
12 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 81.3%
1X 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 77.4%
Handicap
2 -1 2.25 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.60 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.30 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 3.15 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.95 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet
no 1.95 51.3%
yes 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome Fonbet
12 1.05 95.2%
1x 1.01 99.0%
x2 10.50 9.5%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.01 99.0%
1.01 99.0%
1.60 62.5%
10.50 9.5%
11.00 9.1%
11.50 8.7%
12.00 8.3%
1.01 99.0%
10.50 9.5%
11.50 8.7%
2.25 44.4%
1.01 99.0%
1.01 99.0%
1.01 99.0%
1.01 99.0%
11.50 8.7%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 0.5 1.09 91.7%
Over 1 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5 1.18 84.8%
Over 2 1.30 76.9%
Over 2.5 1.30 76.9%
Over 3 1.65 60.6%
Over 3.5 11.50 8.7%
Over 4 9.50 10.5%
Over 4.5 11.00 9.1%
Over 5 5.10 19.6%
Over 5.5 11.00 9.1%
Over 6.5 12.00 8.3%
Under 0.5 5.80 17.2%
Under 1 4.70 21.3%
Under 1.5 4.30 23.3%
Under 2 3.15 31.8%
Under 2.5 3.15 31.8%
Under 3 2.18 45.9%
Match center
Mirassol
W D W
29.07 20:30 UTC+0 Brazil: Seriya A Betano Standings
Mirassol 2:1 Remo
25.07 21:30 UTC+0 Brazil: Seriya A Betano Standings
Mirassol 1:1 Vasko da GamaVasko da Gama
17.07 21:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Seriya A Betano Standings
Mirassol 2:1 Gremio
2 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.7 Scored
1.0 Conceded
7 Points
Gremio
D L
26.07 19:30 UTC+0 Brazil: Seriya A Betano Standings
Gremio 1:1 FluminenseFluminense
17.07 21:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Seriya A Betano Standings
Gremio 1:2 Mirassol
0 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.5 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMirassol - Gremio

Mirassol
0 matches total
Gremio
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history